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Fri 16 Mar 2018, 10:15 GMT

Oil up slightly, but remains in tight trading range


By A/S Global Risk Management.

Michael Poulson, Global Risk Management.
Image credit: Global Risk Management
Oil prices are slightly up, but remains in tight trading range as mixed news continues to emerge.

Over the week, both OPEC and IEA monthly reports foresee increased oil supply, but also increased demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report, published yesterday, stated that February global oil supply increased by 700,000 barrels per day compared to same time last year to 97.9 mio. barrels per day. In addition, global oil inventories rose to 7-month high in January. This despite OPEC and a row of non-OPEC oil producers' attempt to curb oil production in a production cut agreement which was implemented from January last year and remains in force till at least June this year where the parties meet again.

The IEA report, however, also foresees a market re-balancing which is "clearly moving ahead" as demand/supply balance is aligning.

Venezuela's crude exports to U.S. fell to 15-year low last month. Production in the country continues to decline and fell almost 10% in February.

Tonight, the weekly oil rig count from Baker Hughes is published; last week saw a decline in the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. of 4 to 796, so the data could spur some market volatility.

Turning to economic data, U.S. industrial production along with Eurozone Q4 wage growth are coming up today. Next week, the Fed will meet and market will look for clues of a soon-to-come (or not?) interest rate hike. Never a dull week in the oil and financial markets!

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