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Oil prices are little changed this morning in quiet trading due to the 4th July holiday in the US. However, the overall tone on markets remains firm due to concerns over Iran and an increased risk appetite following the EU summit last week.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX were lead by the rather bullish technical and fundamental constellation and showed a steady tendency in the morning. Around noon, first resistance lines were breached triggering further technical buying orders. As to fundamentals, the persisting strike of Norwegian oil workers, increasing tensions with the Iran as well as investors' hopes on supportive measures from the banks of issue have supported prices. Given that the USA is celebrating its independence today, volume is expected to remain rather low. Many market players thus avoid being caught on the wrong foot, especially with regard to the Iran conflict, reducing their open short position since yesterday. Better-than-expected US industrial orders and hopes on further measures of monetary easing by the banks of issues to boost economy has pushed equities and oil futures higher in the afternoon. Several resistance lines have been breached in the course of trade frequently triggering more buying orders. The Brent thus exceeded the psychological mark of 100 dollars. The WTI temporarily gained 5.2% compared to its previous settlement price and also settled near this high.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 880.75 dollars on Tuesday. This was 31.75 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 37,800 contracts the traded volume was below average.

After their rise in the past few days, oil futures trade in an overbought zone. The lines of the stochastic indicator are already converging but don't give any selling signal yet. Therefore there are seen as neutral. Merely technical, a selling signal is only existing when the lines of the stochastic cross. This signal might be reinforced by the overbought situation. We thus assess the situation as technically neutral, even though the stochastic indicator is still slightly bullish at the WTI and the G.Oil charts.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures traded lower in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. Markets are relatively calm but quotations slightly retreat after yesterday's rise. The traded volume is below average. Traders eye equity and forex markets today as well as European economic indicators see economic calendar. Due to the US Independence Day, the DOE's data will be published only on Thursday 5 p.m.

API's: Crude oil -3.0; distillates -1.1; gasoline -1.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.5%
DOE's; due out tomorrow.
Forecasts: Crude oil -0.9; distillates -0.1; gasoline +1.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 3-7)

380cst $588
180cst $610
MGO $920

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 3-7)

380cst $618
180cst $653
MGO $924

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bullish momentum with WTI +$2.44. Singapore paper is firming as well with +$11.25 for 180cst and +$11.25 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$11.70 and 380cst +$11.00 with MGO contracts Jul +$1.70 and Aug +$1.64. The cargo market is gaining, but not as bullish as crude and paper with 180cst +$4.82, 380cst +$4.31 and MGO +$0.83.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices extended its strength, rising more than $4.0 during the morning window yesterday as crude prices firmed. The bunker premiums were seen at app. $7.75- 8.75 above cargo prices yesterday as crude strengthened after the window. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted up to $25/mt gains at the front of the forward curve. Backend was slightly weaker, up by app. $22.50/mt. This morning markets are trading slightly down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $605
180 cst $615
MGO $850

Fujairah (delivered indications 4-7)

380cst $605
180cst $632
MGO $1010

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Although the worries on the Euro zone and global oil demand is slowing continue, the avail constraints continue to underpin both hsfo and lsfo levels and Crude surging Yesterday. Not much relief is expected within the next couple of weeks, with continuing loading delays, cutter stock shortages and arbitrage loadings reported. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries, if any avails at all.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 578
(1.0 %) :$ 631
180cst: $ 602
(1.0 %):$ 668
MGO 0.1%S: $872