Mon 21 May 2012, 13:10 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude futures are seen higher ahead of the NYMEX pit open, with the G8 Summit over the weekend providing upbeat commentary about support to the Eurozone growth including Greece. The ICE G.Oil's strong support at 912.50 dollars limited the upward potential and quotations pulled back from their highs around noon. Analysts expect prices to remain within their trend channels this afternoon, whereas there is some slack up. As there are no fundamental news for the time being, traders are looking ahead to the results of the negotiations with the Iran later this week as well as to US oil inventories data which are expected to show renewed builds in Cushing crude stocks.

Oil prices showed some volatility in London and New York Friday, zigzagging between support (106.40 dollars brent, 91.60 dollars WTI) and resistance lines (107.85 dollars Brent and 92.90 dollars WTI) in a market dominated by the bearish technical constellation. The stronger euro vs dollar lent some support in the afternoon and limited the losses. But towards the end of the session the bearish sentiment prevailed and the WTI fell through its 91.60 dollar support, hitting a 7-month low at 90.93 dollars as traders took profit in view of the reversal of the Seaway pipeline scheduled for the weekend.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 907.75 dollars on Friday. Fundamentals bearish. This was 10.75 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 55,500 contracts the traded volume was about on average.

OPEC: Saudi Arabia raised crude production by 0.7% to a near 31-year high at 9.92mbpd in March to become the world’s largest producer for the first time in 6-years, exports rose 3% in response to the cut in Iranian shipments. In April, China imported some 23.7% less of crude oil from Iran compared to the previous year. The country mainly substitutes the Iranian oil with imports from Saudi-Arabia. Saudi deliveries accordingly increased, making China's imports from the kingdom rise 14% compared to the previous year in April. China's total oil demand increased by +3.3% on year in the reported month.

Neither the Stochastic oscillator nor the RSI are giving any fresh signals this morning, see also technical analysis. Both indicators are at the strongly oversold level, signalling a pending upward correction, but the strong downward channels tempt technical analysts to prognosticate a continuation of the downtrend even though minor upward corrections are possible. A key resistance at 92.25 dollars for the WTI must be observed today. As long as prices stay below this level the sentiment will remain bearish but above there is some upside seen.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures rise in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, rebounding from their longterm lows on Friday on technically driven buying orders and at the beginning of a week marked by hopes of a positive result from nuclear talks with Iran. The traded volume is above average. Due to a lack of economic indicators, investors will eye the performance of stock and forex markets today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 21-5)

380cst $636
180cst $668
MGO $970

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 21-5)

380cst $627
180cst $670
MGO $965

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slightly up with +$0.35 Singapore paper is tracking crude, bouncing up as well with +$5.00 for 180cst and +$3.15 for 380cst for June, and for July 180 cst +$5.00 and 380cst +$3.15 with MGO contracts June +$0.39 and Jul +$0.39. The cargo market is bearish still with 180cst -$18.02, 380cst -$20.86 and MGO -$2.00.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than -$18.0 last Friday morning. Bunker demand was said to be firm as lower outright prices attracted buying interest. The delivered bunker premiums remained around $5.0 to $9.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted double digit losses last Friday while Singapore papers were even weaker, losing more than $14/mt at the front. Backend of the forward curve for both papers were a couple of dollars stronger. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $642
180 cst $653
MGO $900

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-5)

380cst $665
180cst $686
MGO $1035

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The NWE bunker markets were subdued, with most suppliers off for Ascension day. The little trading handled was on considerably lower levels in Rotterdam and Antwerp. Demand was reported low as traders are not keen n fixing in anticipation of the further weakness on a continuing turmoil in Europe. LSFO remains quite tight in Rotterdam.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 618
(1.0 %) :$ 664
180cst: $ 641
(1.0 %):$ 662
MGO 0.1%S: $903

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