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Oil prices hovered near $103 a barrel Tuesday in Asia amid investor worries that Europe's debt crisis will undermine economic growth and crude consumption. More direction is expected from the API numbers, published later this afternoon.

Oil prices retreated in London and New York until early Monday afternoon, despite the slightly bullish technical constellation. As expected, they kept track of the performance at stock and foreign exchanges. Worse than expected economic data as well as the political insecurities in France and the Netherlands predominated then, causing some profit taking as investors tended to avoid riskier positions. The losses at stock exchanges and the lower euro weighed on oil futures, which consequently breached first supports. Only after the euro and equities consolidated after the opening of US trading, oil prices were able to build a bottom. They then saw a modest upward correction. Output cuts at the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea supported prices, as they reduce the availability of Forties crude, the main component of the benchmark crude Brent. Quotations at ICE and NYMEX were able to erase most of their losses. The traded volume remained below average, however, as investors waited for decisions regarding monetary policy, which the US Fed is to announce on Wednesday. These decisions are likely to provide decisive impulsions.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 989.75 dollars on Monday. This was -12.50 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 43,900 contracts the traded volume was slightly below average.

OPEC: in the face of the oil producing countries' low reserve capacities, the OPEC has decided to raise its production capacity by 6 million barrels per day by 2016. If the buffer of the output is low, the OPEC's influence fades, as speculations on futures shortages increase, even if production is raised. To regain its influence on the market, the OPEC needs to increase its capacities again, to create a such buffer and to ensure supply.

The stochastic indicator is still bullish at ICE charts and it also gives some buying impulsions for the WTI crude this morning, after its lines have crossed. Technical analysts rather take a neutral stance, however, pointing at the current mid-term trend channels which still indicate a downward movement and are likely to limit possible gains. Only if oil futures exceed these channels sustainably, new technical buying impetus is to be expected, analysts say.

U.S.

Nymex access gaining: Oil futures have hardly changed in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. According to market participants, there is some profit taking, whereas markets are still rather calm for the time being, showing no clear direction. The traded volume at NYMEX has been far below average. Market players now eye the performances of stock and forex markets, today's economic indicators, see economic calendar, and the API's forecast of oil inventories that is to be published tonight at 10.30.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Wednesday at 16:30(DOE) Crude oil +1.7; distillates +1.0; gasoline +1.0 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 24-4)

380cst $696
180cst $78
MGO $1030

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 24-4)

380cst $705
180cst $735
MGO $1035

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is slowing, but not turning bullish yet with WTI -$0.06. Singapore paper is ahead of crude, turning with +$4.00 for 180cst and +$4.00 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst +$3.80 and 380cst +$4.00 with MGO contracts May +$0.50 and June +$0.51. The cargo market is slowly turning with 180cst +$3.80, 380cst +$4.00 and MGO +$0.51.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than $2.5 during yesterday morning, tracking the weak crude. Despite the lower outright prices, demand was said to be slow yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around $7.25 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost app. $6/mt along the curve both. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $712
180 cst $722
MGO $980

Fujairah (delivered indications 24-4)

380cst $717
180cst $740
MGO $1045

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

After last weeks bullishness, the hsfo markets came down firm. The tight lsfo avails improved on incoming cargoes. The Eastern arbitrage seems to open, and more fixtures are expected.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 685
(1.0 %) :$ 736
180cst: $ 711
(1.0 %):$ 754
MGO 0.1%S: $990