Thu 20 Oct 2011, 12:23 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil futures bolster on a weaker dollar, coming back from their earlier lows and paring their early morning losses. They have kept track of the development at European stock markets. After having opened with losses, equities have been able to slightly recover again in the course of the session. Prices have also been supported by the euro pulling back from its lows.

Yesterday, Oil prices traded in a narrow range in electronic trading, loosing a bit of ground around midday on some profit taking and started the session in New York treading water. The euro's gains and strong equity markets lent support at this time of the day and prevented a selloff. Prices jumped briefly after the DOE's oil inventory report appeared to reflect bullish oil figures, but quickly fell back. The drop came almost immediately after the release of the Fed's latest Beige Book report, which found economic growth "modest" or "slight" in most parts of the country, and the jobs market showing little improvement.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 948.25 dollars on Wednesday. This was 11.75 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. With some 68.400 contracts the traded volume was above average.

The Stochastic oscillator is bearish at all charts this morning and the RSI indicator gives a further bearish signal at the brent and WTI chart by crossing the 70% line. At the G.Oil and the H.Oil chart the indicator still lingers above the line, providing more downside to oil prices once it falls through. Thus technical analysts forecast more technical selling for today. The WTI crude is supported at 85.35 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 88.00 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 110.80 dollars, its first support is at 107.80 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil futures are edging lower in East Asiaand Globex electronic trade this morning, extending Wednesday's late losses and hitting first short-term supports in the wake of last night's drop in equities and the rising dollar. The traded volume is slightly above average. The WTI December contract is much more actively traded, the contract for November delivery expiring tonight. Traders' focus today is set on a string of US indicators in the afternoon.

API's: Crude oil -2.2; distillates -2.2; gasoline -5.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -1.0%
DOE's; Crude oil -4.7; distillates -4.3; gasoline -3.3 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -1.1%
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.3; distillates -1.5; gasoline +1.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 19-10)

380cst $662
180cst $708
MGO $978

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 19-10)

380cst $665
180cst $711
MGO $981

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping again on mixed economic data with WTI -$2.31 Singapore paper is mirroring it with -$10.45 for 180cst and -$9.95 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$10.45 and 380cst -$9.95 with MGO Nov contracts at -$0.98 and for Dec at -$0.98. The cargo market is lagging, gaining with 180cst +$4.38, 380cst +$3.12 and MGO +$1.57.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $3.00 during the Platts window yesterday tracking crude movement. The supply tightness eased slightly with some arrivals of cargoes. The delivered bunker premiums slipped to around $15.5 above the cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps gained app. $10.50/mt along the curve for papers with gains slightly more pronounced at the backend. This morning markets are trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $661
180 cst $670
MDO $911

Fujairah (delivered indications 20-10)

380cst $657
180cst $682
MGO $1037

Avails issue are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Rotterdam 380 CST high sulfur bunker fuel premiums over 3.5% FOB Rotterdam barges continued to firm on the back of tight supply that is causing congestion at loading installations. The high sulfur bunker fuel premium over comparable FOB Rotterdam barges was assessed at $13/mt on Tuesday, up from $12.50/mt Monday and $11.25/mt last Friday. FOB Rotterdam HSFO barges were assessed at $629.50/mt Tuesday, with comparable bunker fuel at $642.50/mt. HSFO supply shortages for prompt deliveries in Rotterdam were mainly caused by at least three VLCCs that have only just finished loading, while loading issues have also been an issue for HSFO barge deliveries. Suppliers are fully booked, caused by serious congestion at loading installations. Very few barges are available as they are tied up in waiting queues, with loading delays reported of three to four days. In the MOC 1% was traded at $ 656-650 with hs $ 636-642 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 636
(1.0 %) :$ 655
180cst: $ 652
(1.0 %):$ 673
MGO 0.1%S: $ 947

MGO  

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