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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

Oil prices prices trade higher on bullish technical signals. ICE Gasoil and Brent have breached some resistance lines supported also by rising equity markets. WTI Crude has tested its first resistance.

Yesterday, oil futures are losing a bit of ground in Asian trading and Globex electronic trading this morning. The rising dollar and the decline in Asian shares weigh on prices that were already getting bearish signals after resistance lines at 86.00 dollars for the WTI and 108.00 dollars for the brent proved strong in after-hour trading. The traded volume is below average.

ICE gasoil for August delivery settled at 904.50 dollars on Thursday. This was 19.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 125,400 contracts the traded volume was significantly above average.

OPEC maintained its forecast for 2011 crude demand, and expects stable growth in 2012 due to uncertainties about the strength of economic recovery, it announced today in Vienna . In its monthly report, OPEC estimates that demand for crude in 2011 is forecast at 88.18 million barrels/day (bpd), an increase of 1.36 million bpd compared to 2010.

The stochastic indicator stays bullish, even if it gave its selling signal days ago. After their highs during the last few days, markets are clearly less oversold losing some upward potential. The RSI has already approached the 30% line and might, according to chart analysts, give a new buying signal, should this line be breached. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 83.65 dollars, its first resistance at 85.80 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 108.25 dollars, its first support is at 105.45 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining: Oil futures are loosing a bit of ground in Asian trading and Globex electronic trading this morning. The rising dollar and the decline in Asian shares weigh on prices that were already getting bearish signals after resistance lines at 86.00 dollars for the WTI and 108.00 dollars for the brent proved strong in after-hour trading. The traded volume is below average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-8)

380 cst $624
180 cst $656
MDO $924

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 9-8)

380 cst $627
180 cst $658
MDO $928

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining still with WTI +$1.20. Singapore paper is slowing as well, gaining with +$3.95 for 180cst and +$3.95 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$4.50 and +$4.55 for 180cst with MGO Aug contracts at +$0.40 and for Sep at +$0.29. The cargo market is starting to reflect the bullish sentiment, gaining with 180cst +$5.94, 380cst +$6.38 and MGO +$1.96.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than $6.00 during the Platts window yesterday as crude gained strength. The Singapore heavy residual inventory saw an insignificant draw of -0.04 mbbl to 19.60 mbbl which remains largely unchanged. The delivered premiums were kept at around $16.0 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps gained in a range of $6.00-10.00 along the curve both for Rotterdam and Singapore papers, the later showing slightly more strength. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $641
180 cst $645
MDO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-8)

380 cst $665
180 cst $701
MDO $1075

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 611
(1.0 %) :$ 645
180cst: $ 638
(1.0 %):$ 672
MGO 0.1%S: $ 925