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Technical indicators: bearish immediate term / neutral to bullish medium term

Oil prices have fallen after figures showed a drop in Chinese oil imports and as worries persist about the US economy's strength. According to analysts the current employment situation might lead to a decreasing energy demand. Investors look out for further momentum after the opening of markets in the afternoon. Recently prices could pare some of their losses again.

Oil futures initially traded lower on Friday morning, testing their upward potential in the early afternoon, however. Expecting important employment data ahead to emerge clearly positive, market participants build speculative long positions, lifting oil futures at ICE close to their second resistances. When the data were published at 2.30 p.m., the situation took a turn, however. A higher-than-expected employment rate and a disappointing number of non-farm payrolls led to liquidations of long positions and made oil prices draw back to their intra-day lows again. NYMEX Crude Oil was hit the most by these reactions, trading up to 3 dollars lower. In the course of the evening, oil futures traded sideways within a tight range, as investors had already consolidated risks ahead of the weekend. Stock exchanges and the Euro were also weighed down by the disappointing US economic data, settling considerably lower. Oil prices' upward potential is limited again by the investors' increasing unreadiness to take risks regarding the financial markets.

ICE Gasoil contract for July settled at 962.75 dollars on Friday. This was 2.00 dollars above Thursday's settlement. With some 41,600 contracts, the traded volume was slightly below average.

The the WTI Crude, the stochastic indicator is clearly bearish this morning. As to Brent and Gasoil, the situation is clearly overbought as well, but still the indicator does not show any clear selling signals yet. As Brent's resistance at 120 dollars proved strong, chart analysts see a slightly bearish tendency and expect some profit taking which might lead to tests of supports. In the medium-term, Brent is likely to test its resistance at 120 dollars again and WTI Crude might test the mark of 100 dollars. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 95.30 dollars, its first resistance at 97.75 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 119.85 dollars, its first support is at 116.85 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Acces losing. Oil futures slightly retreated during electronic trading. The volume traded at NYMEX is currently was slightly above average this morning. Investors wait for the opening of the European markets and for further impetus from foreign exchange.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-7)

380 cst $656
180 cst $686
MDO $984

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 8-7)

380 cst $658
180 cst $687
MDO $987

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing heavily after last week's surges with WTI -$3.68. Singapore paper is also losing some of its gains with -$6.85 for 180 cst and -$6.65 for 380 cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$6.05 and 380cst -$5.60 with MGO Jul contracts at -$0.68 and for Aug at -$0.69. The cargo market is ignoring the latest turn, gaining bullish momentum with 180cst +$12.56, 380cst +$12.85 and MGO +$3.75.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rose up by more than +$12.5/mt during the Platts window last Friday. The delivered premiums fell to around $9.00/mt above cargo prices last Friday as the higher outright prices dampened demand. Bunker fuel swaps closed the week with small loses across the market. Prices were a little stronger forward compared to the front month. Front month Rotterdam barges were slightly stronger compared to Singapore papers as they were supported by spot market. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $665
180 cst $674
MDO $964

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst :$ 638
(1.0 %) :$ 697
180cst :$ 671
(1.0 %) :$ 725
MGO 0.1%S: $ 967