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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

Oil prices rose again in late NYMEX session and after-hours trading as the dollar fell against the euro and other currencies, and a surprise drop in weekly job claims which bolstered confidence in the US economic recovery, yet always staying within the given support and resistance lines, as analysts had expected. Oil prices stayed well within the technical triangle Thursday (see graph below) and are expected to ease some more today as 82.50 dollar resistance line is seen strong. The red and the black line of the Stochastic indicator have crossed, giving markets a bearish signal. First WTI crude support line seen at 81.55 dollars today, first resistance line at 82.50 dollars.Oil prices are seen lower today as investors are expected to reduce their long positions ahead of the weekend, anxious about the form and scale of an expected monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week. If the stimulus is less than market expectations, the dollar will come back up and commodities will sell off. Apart from that, U.S. crude supplies are at the highest in 17 months after surging more than 5 million barrels last week, a fact that is giving bearish signals.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 5,00 to 6,00 dollars lower at about 702,50 dollars/ton after settling at 708,00 dollars (official settlement price) Thursday night. This was +12,00 dollars vs Wednesday's settlement. Volume with some 44,7700 deals on average.

Initial Unemployment claims declined by 21,000 to 434,000 in the week ended Oct. 23, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday. The previous week's figures were revised upward from 452,000 to 455,000. That brings claims down to levels last seen since the week ended July 10. Economists had expected claims would rise slightly by 3,000.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil prices are easing in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, crude oil falling back below 82.00 dollars, as the dollar climbed and investors took profits at the end of a month of commodity price gains. No news in the markets. The traded volume is below average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28-10)

380cst: $456
180cst: $476
MGO: $745

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 28-10)

380cst: $458
180cst: $478
MGO: $749

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is losing again with WTI -$0.52. Singapore paper is reflecting it with 180cst -$2.25 and 380cst -$2.50 for Nov, and Dec 180 cst -$2.15 and 380cst -$2.40 with MGO Nov contracts -$0.65 and for Dec at+$0.63. The cargo market is yet to react with 180cst +$2.41, 380cst +$2.96 and MGO +$0.35.

The Singapore fuel oil prices were up more than $3 during Platts window. Term premiums for November supply were discussed around 75 cents- $1.25/mt while October delivered bunker premiums were assessed 50cents- $1.50/mt above cargo prices.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $470
180cst: $480
MGO: $693

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 46KT between 452-455 with again Litasco as the main seller to Gunvor and Petroned as the main buyers.

The Northwest European market continued to be weighed down by healthy availability. Bunker demand and interest in a cash-and carry move, however, were keeping fundamentals supported as well, resulting in largely stable dynamics. The hi-lo differential was seen at $16.75/mt Thursday, $1/mt higher since Wednesday, Platts data showed. NWE high sulfur fuel oil barges strengthened Thursday, reacting to Singapore’s bullish run rather than Rotterdam demand, which remained weak. Platts assessed FOB NWE barges up $7.75/mt at $453.00/mt, supported largely by crude’s similar rise. Borderline arbitrage economics to Singapore heated up efforts of securing a VLCC for early-mid November. Yet there remained little motivation in loading barrels in a vessel for arrival December, the month when companies would try to lower inventories. As such, relative Rotterdam barge strength weakened, as the fuel oil crack slipped back into $12/barrel range, at $12.43/b.

380cst: $454
(1.0%): $476
180cst: $471
(1.0%): $494
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $706