Commentary
Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way
OPEC meeting on the 6th, I wonder what they'll say, Oh
Cut production cut production, we could see higher Brent
Simply put, we all have bills and need to cover rent.
Jingle bells, jingle bells, what will happen in 19
Ultra-low-sulphur hedging contracts could become mainstream.
Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way
I am done, but this was fun, I wish you all good day.
OPEC and its allies are working towards a deal this week to reduce oil output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day, four sources said, adding that Russia's resistance to a major cut was so far the main stumbling block. OPEC meets on Thursday in Vienna, followed by talks with allies such as Russia on Friday, amid a drop in crude prices caused by global economic weakness and fears of an oil glut due largely to a rise in U.S. production. The producer group's de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, has indicated a need for steep reductions in output from January but has come under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to help support the world economy with lower oil prices.
Possibly complicating any OPEC decision is the crisis around the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October. Trump has backed Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman despite calls from many U.S. politicians to impose stiff sanctions on Riyadh. The sources, three from OPEC and one from a non-OPEC producer, said the meetings were taking place in a difficult environment and that Russia's position would be key in reaching a deal. "Russia is playing tough," one of the OPEC sources said.
Another OPEC source said: "The Saudis are working hard on the cut. But if Russia says no cut, then we (OPEC) won't cut." The Saudi and United Arab Emirates energy ministers, Khalid al-Falih and Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, said on Tuesday that an adjustment in global oil output was required but all producers must be on board. Two sources said talks were focusing on a pro-rata cut of 3.0-3.5 percent from October output levels, with no exemptions for any member. Sources also said OPEC could delay a decision to cut if the main criteria such as Russia's involvement were not met, even though doing so would mean a further fall in prices.
Fuel Oil Market (Dec 4)
Physical trade activity holds firm but 380 cSt cash premium slips - Weighed down by lower deal values, cash premiums of Asia's mainstay 380 (HSFO) on Tuesday slipped from a twoweek high hit in the previous session. Trade volumes for physical cargoes of 380 cSt HSFO, however, remained elevated in the Singapore window on Tuesday, extending the spike in trade liquidity that kicked off the first trading session of December.
- Eight 20,000 tonne cargo trades were reported in the Singapore trading window, totalling 160,000 tonnes of 380 cSt HSFO.
- Trafigura bought most of the cargoes, lifting five cargoes of the fuel followed by Hin Leong which bought two and P66 with one.
- The top suppliers on Tuesday were led by Gunvor with five cargoes of the fuel sold, followed by Socar with two cargoes and Shell with one.
- The traded volumes of physical fuel oil cargoes on the second trading day of December, which now total 520,000 tonnes, represented two-thirds of the 760,000 tonnes of fuel oil deals that were traded in the whole of November. Crack traded weaker at -5.80 on the close.
Economic Events:
* 12am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 30
* 1:15pm: U.S. ADP Employment Change, Nov.
* 1:30pm: U.S. Nonfarm Productivity
* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit Services PMI Nov.
* 3pm: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Nov.
* 7pm: U.S. Fed releases Beige Book
* Federal Energy Policy Summit, Washington, 1st day
* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report
* Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting, Vienna
Singapore 380 cSt
Jan19 - 383.00 / 385.00
Feb19 - 377.25 / 379.25
Mar19 - 372.25 / 374.25
Apr19 - 367.25 / 369.25
May19 - 362.00 / 364.00
Jun19 - 356.50 / 358.50
Q1-19 - 377.50 / 379.50
Q2-19 - 361.75 / 363.75
Q3-19 - 342.75 / 345.25
Q4-19 - 316.25 / 318.75
CAL19 - 349.75 / 352.75
CAL20 - 294.25 / 300.25
Singapore 180 cSt
Jan19 - 387.25 / 389.25
Feb19 - 382.25 / 384.25
Mar19 - 378.50 / 380.50
Apr19 - 374.00 / 376.00
May19 - 369.50 / 371.50
Jun19 - 364.50 / 366.50
Q1-19 - 382.75 / 384.75
Q2-19 - 369.25 / 371.25
Q3-19 - 352.50 / 355.00
Q4-19 - 331.75 / 334.25
CAL19 - 359.25 / 362.25
CAL20 - 315.25 / 321.25
Rotterdam 3.5%
Jan19 - 352.00 / 354.00
Feb19 - 347.75 / 349.75
Mar19 - 343.75 / 345.75
Apr19 - 339.75 / 341.75
May19 - 335.50 / 337.50
Jun19 - 331.00 / 333.00
Q1-19 - 347.75 / 349.75
Q2-19 - 335.25 / 337.25
Q3-19 - 317.00 / 319.50
Q4-19 - 287.75 / 290.25
CAL19 - 321.75 / 324.75
CAL20 - 270.50 / 276.50
0.1% Rott barges Gasoil
Jan19 - 555.59 / 557.59
Feb19 - 556.08 / 558.08
Mar19 - 556.08 / 558.08
Apr19 - 556.86 / 558.86
May19 - 558.37 / 560.37
Jun19 - 560.38 / 562.38
Q1-19 - 555.92 / 557.92
Q2-19 - 558.53 / 560.53
Q3-19 - 567.50 / 570.00
Q4-19 - 574.49 / 577.49
CAL19 - 563.67 / 567.67
CAL20 - 587.88 / 593.88
Sing GO 10ppm
Jan19 - 73.86 / 74.06
Feb19 - 74.33 / 74.53
Mar19 - 74.77 / 74.97
Apr19 - 75.10 / 75.30
May19 - 75.26 / 75.46
Jun19 - 75.42 / 75.62
Q1-19 - 74.22 / 74.62
Q2-19 - 75.05 / 75.45
Q3-19 - 75.77 / 76.07
Q4-19 - 76.29 / 76.69
CAL19 - 75.22 / 75.82
CAL20 - 76.68 / 77.28
