Commentary
Oil prices on Monday clawed back some losses from a nearly 8 percent plunge the previous session, with Brent jumping back above $60 per barrel, but sentiment remained weak amid a broad sell-off in financial markets in past weeks. Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose $1.31, or 2.2 percent, to $60.11 per barrel by 06:43 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures, were up 66 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $51.08 per barrel.
The gains partly made up for Friday's sell-off, which traders have already dubbed 'Black Friday'. Reacting to Friday's falls in Brent and WTI, China's Shanghai crude futures on Monday fell by 5 percent, hitting their daily downside limit. The downward pressure comes from surging supply and a slowdown in demand growth, which is expected to result in an oil supply overhang by next year."2019 will be a choppy year for the oil market as questions surrounding the prospect of a slowing global economy and a supply surplus are expected to increase," analysts at Fitch Solutions said on Monday. Fitch said that even an expected supply cut led by the OPEC following an official meeting on Dec. 6 "may not be enough to counteract the bearish forces".
Wider downturn
Oil markets are also being affected by a downturn in wider financial markets. "2018 clearly marked the end of the 10-year Asia credit bull market due to tightening financial conditions in Asia (especially China), and we expect this to remain the case in 2019," Morgan Stanley said in a note released on Sunday. "We don't think that we are at the bottom of the cycle yet," the U.S. bank said.
Oil markets have also been weighed down by a strong U.S.-dollar, which has surged against most other currencies this year, thanks to rising interest rates that have pulled investor money out of other currencies and also assets like oil, which are seen as more risky than the greenback. "Anything denominated against the USD is under pressure right now, said McKenna. Another risk to global trade and overall economic growth is the trade war between the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China.
"The U.S.-China trade conflict poses a downside risk as we forecast the U.S. to impose 25 percent tariffs on all China imports by Q1 2019," U.S. bank J.P. Morgan said in a note published on Friday.
Fuel Oil Market (Nov 23)
The front crack opened at -4.10, strengthening to -3.25, before weakening to -3.40. The Cal 19 was valued at -10.40.
The front-month Singapore 180 cSt fuel oil crack slipped on Friday amid weaker crude oil prices, but held near a record high seen on Tuesday for the second time this month.
The front-month Singapore 180 cSt fuel oil swap was at $4.05 a barrel above Middle East benchmark Dubai crude oil, down from $4.39 a barrel in the previous session.
Boosted by tightening global supply and falling crude oil prices, the front-month fuel oil swap on Tuesday hit a record premium of $4.47 a barrel above Middle East benchmark Dubai crude oil.
Weekly fuel oil stocks in the ARA oil and storage hub jumped 14 percent, or 124,000 tonnes, to a two-week high of 1.037 million tonnes in the week ended Nov. 22, data from Dutch consultancy PJK International showed.
Economic Events:
* Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly commitments of traders report, 3:30pm, later than usual due to U.S. holiday last week
* Angola final program for January, Russia loading program for December
* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change
** Also, weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report
Singapore 380 cSt
Dec18 - 398.00 / 400.00
Jan19 - 386.75 / 388.75
Feb19 - 378.00 / 380.00
Mar19 - 371.50 / 373.50
Apr19 - 365.75 / 367.75
May19 - 360.00 / 362.00
Q1-19 - 378.75 / 380.75
Q2-19 - 360.00 / 362.00
Q3-19 - 340.00 / 342.50
Q4-19 - 312.00 / 314.50
CAL19 - 347.50 / 350.50
CAL20 - 289.00 / 295.00
Singapore 180 cSt
Dec18 - 402.50 / 404.50
Jan19 - 391.50 / 393.50
Feb19 - 384.00 / 386.00
Mar19 - 378.50 / 380.50
Apr19 - 374.25 / 376.25
May19 - 369.00 / 371.00
Q1-19 - 384.50 / 386.50
Q2-19 - 369.00 / 371.00
Q3-19 - 351.50 / 354.00
Q4-19 - 328.50 / 331.00
CAL19 - 358.50 / 361.50
CAL20 - 310.00 / 316.00
Rotterdam 3.5%
Dec18 - 357.25 / 359.25
Jan19 - 350.00 / 352.00
Feb19 - 345.00 / 347.00
Mar19 - 340.25 / 342.25
Apr19 - 335.50 / 337.50
May19 - 330.75 / 332.75
Q1-19 - 345.00 / 347.00
Q2-19 - 330.75 / 332.75
Q3-19 - 311.50 / 314.00
Q4-19 - 281.25 / 283.75
CAL19 - 316.00 / 319.00
CAL20 - 265.00 / 271.00
0.1% Rott barges Gasoil
18-Dec - 567.25 / 569.25
19-Jan - 559.97 / 561.97
19-Feb - 559.09 / 561.09
19-Mar - 559.75 / 561.75
19-Apr - 560.32 / 562.32
1q19 - 559.6 / 561.6
2q19 - 561.97 / 563.97
3q19 - 569.32 / 571.82
4q19 - 575.4 / 578.4
cal19 - 566.01 / 569.51
cal20 - 575 576.5
Sing GO 10ppm
18-Dec - 74.8 / 75
19-Jan - 75.2 / 75.4
19-Feb - 75.49 / 75.69
19-Mar - 75.69 / 75.89
19-Apr - 75.83 / 76.03
1q19 - 75.46 / 75.66
2q19 - 75.87 / 76.12
3q19 - 76.71 / 76.96
4q19 - 77.51 / 77.76
cal19 - 76.33 / 76.68
cal20 - 77.62 / 78.22
