Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures were at $67.41 per barrel at 07:46 GMT, up 65 cents, or 1 percent, from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures, were up 76 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $57.22 per barrel. I feel like the time machine has been invented, but we just all weren't told it had been activated. It's November, OPEC are talking about agreeing a cut, prices are looking low compared to much of the year (and especially compared to predictions a few months ago), U.S. shale production is making ever new highs, Trump is still Trump, and the financials are looking like they have net neutral positions on oil. Now the question is: Will history repeat itself? A scenario of rumours going into the meeting on the 6th December, followed by an agreement of a cut; pop goes crude, customers of mainly Middle Eastern crudes bemoan the situation, then we'll get a nice profit-taking drop as the financials cut out of their long positions. Then we will start going on and on about demand growth that never really materialises, and then to complete the cycle there will be reports of record supplies of crude. Hedge for Dec+Q1, sell for Q2, hedge Q4 going into the 2020 debacle? Sounds like a plan, well makes sense... until Trump tweets

Fuel Oil Market (Nov 16)

The front crack opened at -5.55, strengthening to -5.45, before weakening to -5.75, closing -5.65. The Cal 19 was valued at -12.10.

A tighter supply outlook for December compared with November helped lift the 380 cSt fuel oil front-month time spread and East-West arbitrage spread on Friday.

The 380 cSt December/January time spread jumped to about $11.25 a tonne from about $10.50 a tonne on Thursday.

Similarly, the December East-West 380 cSt fuel oil arbitrage spread climbed to about $39.75 from $38.50.

The front-month arbitrage spread rose to $40 per tonne on Nov. 8, its highest since records began in late 2015, according to Refinitiv Eikon.

Economic Events:

* 3pm: U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for November

* Nigerian and other WAF loading programs for January

* JODI monthly oil output, export data

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change; plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillate inventories before Wednesday's EIA weekly inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Dec18 - 434.00 / 436.00

Jan19 - 422.50 / 424.50

Feb19 - 413.75 / 415.75

Mar19 - 407.50 / 409.50

Apr19 - 402.00 / 404.00

May19 - 396.50 / 398.50

Q1-19 - 414.75 / 416.75

Q2-19 - 396.50 / 398.50

Q3-19 - 376.25 / 378.75

Q4-19 - 344.50 / 347.00

CAL19 - 380.00 / 383.00

CAL20 - 316.75 / 322.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Dec18 - 439.00 / 441.00

Jan19 - 427.75 / 429.75

Feb19 - 420.25 / 422.25

Mar19 - 415.00 / 417.00

Apr19 - 411.00 / 413.00

May19 - 406.00 / 408.00

Q1-19 - 421.00 / 423.00

Q2-19 - 406.00 / 408.00

Q3-19 - 388.00 / 390.50

Q4-19 - 360.50 / 363.00

CAL19 - 391.00 / 394.00

CAL20 - 337.75 / 343.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Dec18 - 394.00 / 396.00

Jan19 - 387.25 / 389.25

Feb19 - 382.25 / 384.25

Mar19 - 377.25 / 379.25

Apr19 - 372.50 / 374.50

May19 - 367.50 / 369.50

Q1-19 - 382.25 / 384.25

Q2-19 - 368.00 / 370.00

Q3-19 - 348.00 / 350.50

Q4-19 - 314.00 / 316.50

CAL19 - 350.50 / 353.50

CAL20 - 293.75 / 299.75

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Dec18 - 621.03 / 623.03

Jan19 - 617.40 / 619.40

Feb19 - 615.86 / 617.86

Mar19 - 614.25 / 616.25

Apr19 - 613.71 / 615.71

May19 - 614.54 / 616.54

Q1-19 - 615.84 / 617.84

Q2-19 - 614.58 / 616.58

Q3-19 - 619.51 / 622.01

Q4-19 - 625.07 / 628.07

CAL19 - 618.06 / 622.06

CAL20 - 624.99 / 630.99

Sing GO 10ppm

Dec18 - 83.36 / 83.56

Jan19 - 83.36 / 83.56

Feb19 - 83.33 / 83.53

Mar19 - 83.26 / 83.46

Apr19 - 83.23 / 83.43

May19 - 83.22 / 83.42

Q1-19 - 83.21 / 83.61

Q2-19 - 83.09 / 83.49

Q3-19 - 83.50 / 83.80

Q4-19 - 83.79 / 84.19

CAL19 - 83.29 / 83.89

CAL20 - 83.38 / 84.38