Image credit: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Front-month Brent crude oil futures were at $76.76 a barrel at 04:52 GMT, 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, above their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $66.58 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last settlement. I feel that commodity news has hit a similar problem that TV shows encounter in their fifth or sixth series; it all gets a bit boring. Take House of Cards, for example; yes, when it started it was a fantastic, fast, cut-throat, cool political drama. Now, in its sixth series it is greeted more with thoughts like "of course they were lying", "oh, look another plot twist, how original". We all have read about the Iran sanctions so much the phrase has lost all its meaning. It reminds me of a classic broker response to the question of "why the market is going up?", well "more buyers than sellers". It's now become the line used by those who have run out of things to say, but need to say something. For the Bushisms of the oil world, I give you Oilisms. "See when the world needs oil, the oil man is king"; "the markets rise once, well, erm, see what I'm trying to say is a rising market can't rise again"; "I did not have OPEC relations with that country"; I could go on. API has once again predicted a hefty build in U.S. stock levels, combine that with the economy fears and we have our small drop so far today. Keep an eye out at 3.30pm UK time for EIA data. Might get whippy. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 23)

The front crack opened at -7.50, strengthening to -7.20, before weakening to -7.50, closing -7.30. The Cal 19 was valued at -13.15.

Asia's November 180 cSt high sulphur fuel oil crack to Dubai crude edged slightly lower on Monday but was still trading at a premium, boosted by tight near-term supplies and firm demand.

Strong Saudi Arabian demand for fuel oil for use in power generation in place of crude oil is propping up demand for fuel oil as the world's largest exporter seeks to maximise available supplies of crude for export ahead of looming U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

Looming U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports kicking in on Nov. 4 are contributing to concerns of tightening global supplies, adding to structural declines in fuel oil production from key producers like Russia, Venezuela and Mexico, the sources said.

The front-month 180 cSt crack to Dubai crude slipped to 34 cents a barrel on Monday, down from 40 cents a barrel on

Economic data/events (Times are UK)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, Oct. 19

* 2pm: FHFA House Price Index, Aug.

* 2:45pm: U.S. Markit Manufacturing, Oct. (prelim)

* 3pm: U.S. New Home Sales (Sept.)

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report; TopLive blog starts 3:20pm

* Future Investment Initiative conference, Riyadh, 2nd day of 3

* Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

* Facts Global Energy holds webinar on IMO 2020, Iran sanctions and Russia's role in global oil market

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 467.25 / 469.25

Dec18 - 460.50 / 462.50

Jan19 - 453.75 / 455.75

Feb19 - 447.25 / 449.25

Mar19 - 442.00 / 444.00

Apr19 - 437.00 / 439.00

Q1-19 - 447.50 / 449.50

Q2-19 - 432.25 / 434.25

Q3-19 - 413.50 / 416.00

Q4-19 - 381.75 / 384.25

CAL19 - 418.25 / 421.25

CAL20 - 349.75 / 355.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 474.25 / 476.25

Dec18 - 468.50 / 470.50

Jan19 - 463.25 / 465.25

Feb19 - 457.25 / 459.25

Mar19 - 452.50 / 454.50

Apr19 - 448.00 / 450.00

Q1-19 - 457.75 / 459.75

Q2-19 - 443.50 / 445.50

Q3-19 - 427.75 / 430.25

Q4-19 - 402.00 / 404.50

CAL19 - 432.50 / 435.50

CAL20 - 372.75 / 378.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 437.50 / 439.50

Dec18 - 430.50 / 432.50

Jan19 - 425.50 / 427.50

Feb19 - 421.00 / 423.00

Mar19 - 416.75 / 418.75

Apr19 - 412.75 / 414.75

Q1-19 - 421.00 / 423.00

Q2-19 - 408.00 / 410.00

Q3-19 - 388.50 / 391.00

Q4-19 - 354.75 / 357.25

CAL19 - 392.50 / 395.50

CAL20 - 329.00 / 335.00

0.1% Rott barges Gasoil

Nov18 - 676.75 / 678.75

Dec18 - 672.47 / 674.47

Jan19 - 670.78 / 672.78

Feb19 - 669.60 / 671.60

Mar19 - 668.57 / 670.57

Apr19 - 667.76 / 669.76

Q1-19 - 669.65 / 671.65

Q2-19 - 668.08 / 670.08

Q3-19 - 672.86 / 675.36

Q4-19 - 675.83 / 678.83

CAL19 - 672.86 / 674.79

Sing GO 10ppm

Nov18 - 91.95 / 92.15

Dec18 - 91.05 / 91.25

Jan19 - 90.68 / 90.88

Feb19 - 90.50 / 90.70

Mar19 - 90.46 / 90.66

Apr19 - 90.43 / 90.63

Q1-19 - 90.54 / 90.74

Q2-19 - 90.42 / 90.62

Q3-19 - 90.59 / 90.79

Q4-19 - 90.83 / 91.03

CAL19 - 90.60 / 90.80