Image: Freight Investor Services (FIS)

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Commentary

Brent crude oil futures were at $84.90 per barrel at 04:31 GMT, up 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $74.76 a barrel. It's been all go on the geopolitical scene recently. If you thought things got as good as the US-North Korea courting, and we would then have a great period of peace and tranquility, you are, I'm sure, severely disappointed. We have all heard about the Iran sanctions coming in for November, and the list of potential dissenters is growing. China and Turkey are looking like they will be the first ones to break ranks; the question will be if others such as India or the EU have the guile to also circumvent the sanctions. Everyone is now talking about the bullish positions increasing on the exchanges, which in itself is probably driving further bullish sentiment. It's like a night out: if there's a couple of people in the group who are forthright and make a strong decision where the night is going to go, 9 out of 10 times the rest of the group will follow along. That is the nature of the crude oil futures markets these days: half physical players, half financials. Fundamentals may be telling us one thing, but just like the night out, no one likes that one person who utters the sensible "I'm not sure that's a good idea" line. They are never as popular as the headstrong leaders but, then again, they are usually right at the end of the night. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Oct 04)

The front crack opened at -11.00, strengthening to -10.60, before weakening to -10.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00.

The front-month 380 cSt barge fuel oil crack firmed on Thursday, as concerns about lower Iranian fuel oil supplies from next month with U.S. sanctions coming into effect added to worries of fewer arbitrage volumes into Asia.

The crack discount was at about minus $10.70 a barrel to Brent crude on Thursday, compared with around minus $11.15 a barrel in the previous session, broker sources said.

The front-month crack discount last narrowed on Aug. 23 when Brent crude traded at about $74 a barrel.

Economic data/events (Times are UK)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Trade Balance

* 1:30pm: U.S. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

* 1:30pm: U.S. Unemployment, Sept.

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ~6:30m: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on various U.S. futures and options contracts

* Sibcon 2018, final day

* U.S. Census Bureau Export data

* Russia Energy Week, 3rd day of 4

Singapore 380 cSt

Nov18 - 495.25 / 497.25

Dec18 - 489.50 / 491.50

Jan19 - 483.75 / 485.75

Feb19 - 478.25 / 480.25

Mar19 - 473.25 / 475.25

Apr19 - 468.50 / 470.50

Q1-19 - 478.50 / 480.50

Q2-19 - 463.25 / 465.25

Q3-19 - 443.00 / 445.50

Q4-19 - 405.25 / 407.75

CAL19 - 447.25 / 450.25

CAL20 - 372.00 / 378.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Nov18 - 502.50 / 504.50

Dec18 - 498.00 / 500.00

Jan19 - 494.00 / 496.00

Feb19 - 489.00 / 491.00

Mar19 - 484.00 / 486.00

Apr19 - 479.75 / 481.75

Q1-19 - 489.00 / 491.00

Q2-19 - 475.00 / 477.00

Q3-19 - 457.25 / 459.75

Q4-19 - 426.25 / 428.75

CAL19 - 461.25 / 464.25

CAL20 - 395.25 / 401.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Nov18 - 467.50 / 469.50

Dec18 - 462.25 / 464.25

Jan19 - 458.50 / 460.50

Feb19 - 455.00 / 457.00

Mar19 - 451.25 / 453.25

Apr19 - 447.50 / 449.50

Q1-19 - 455.00 / 457.00

Q2-19 - 442.75 / 444.75

Q3-19 - 419.50 / 422.00

Q4-19 - 379.50 / 382.00

CAL19 - 423.50 / 426.50

CAL20 - 354.25 / 360.25