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Commentary

Brent closed down $0.01 last night to $73.06 and WTI closed at $67.89, down $0.37. A benign end to what was somewhat of a volatile day on Brent yesterday - the market can't decide whether the trade spat, the US/Iran twitter argument or slowing Chinese demand should be the correct headline to concentrate on, so it chose all of them and flat we closed. It is surely only a matter of time before something tangible yields from the ongoing trade war stories and it probably won't be a pretty outcome. So I imagine crude will stay in a fairly narrow range over the next few days. The only ingredient to this ever-intriguing recipe, however, is going to be product demand in the US. Last week, we saw a gasoline draw. A few weeks of those, plus a hurricane or two, and oil could get up to those dizzy heights with news stories of $100 oil. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (Jul 23)

The front crack opened at -7.70, weakening to -7.90, before strengthening to -7.701, closing -7.75. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.00.

Asia's 380 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil market slipped on Monday with the front-month time spread and cash premium giving back some the sharp gains seen in the week before

But while the market began the week on a softer note, trade sources said fundamentals remained bullish on the back of limited supplies of finished grade fuel oil and lower arbitrage volumes into Singapore in August

The Aug/Sept time spread for 380 cSt fuel oil was trading at about $8.75 a tonne on Monday, down from about $9.25 a tonne on Friday, broker sources said. The front-month time spread was last higher in June 2015

Economic data/events (Times are London.)

* 9:00 pm: International Energy Outlook released

* 10:00 pm: U.S. energy committee hearing examining factors of global oil prices

* 10:15 pm: U.S. energy subcommittee hearing on draft legislation to modernize the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

* Wednesday 4:30 am: API weekly U.S. oil inventory report

Singapore 380 cSt

Aug18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Sep18 - 429.75 / 431.75

Oct18 - 425.00 / 427.00

Nov18 - 421.75 / 423.75

Dec18 - 418.75 / 420.75

Jan19 - 415.25 / 417.25

Q4-18 - 421.75 / 423.75

Q1-19 - 412.00 / 414.00

Q2-19 - 401.25 / 403.75

Q3-19 - 380.25 / 382.75

CAL19 - 376.50 / 379.50

CAL20 - 303.00 / 309.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Aug18 - 446.00 / 448.00

Sep18 - 438.75 / 440.75

Oct18 - 435.25 / 437.25

Nov18 - 432.25 / 434.25

Dec18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Jan19 - 426.00 / 428.00

Q4-18 - 432.25 / 434.25

Q1-19 - 423.00 / 425.00

Q2-19 - 413.75 / 416.25

Q3-19 - 396.50 / 399.00

CAL19 - 391.75 / 394.75

CAL20 - 326.25 / 332.25

Rotterdam 3.5%

Aug18 - 416.00 / 418.00

Sep18 - 409.75 / 411.75

Oct18 - 405.25 / 407.25

Nov18 - 401.25 / 403.25

Dec18 - 397.75 / 399.75

Jan19 - 395.25 / 397.25

Q4-18 - 401.50 / 403.50

Q1-19 - 392.75 / 394.75

Q2-19 - 382.00 / 384.50

Q3-19 - 356.75 / 359.25

CAL19 - 354.75 / 357.75

CAL20 - 290.50 / 296.50