---

Commentary

Brent closed last night at $74.73, down $0.82, and WTI closed down $0.50 to $68.08. This market looks like it is more confused than a World Cup football referee reviewing a supposed handball incident. $75 seems to be a nice little round number for it to sit idly by and not do a great deal. All that seems to have really yielded from last weekend's OPEC meeting is that they now have a + next to their name. OPEC+. It sounds like a headache pill. "Constant migraines owing to the oil market? Try OPEC+ today!" I assume that as we are approaching the end of Q2 and halfway through the year, that people will actually say: "Right, I heard about all this amazing demand, so let's review how that has been so far." There are a few people saying that we are going to enter a phase where supply is tight. BofA are saying that they expect prices to get to $90 by Q2-19. I feel that is a little optimistic in such a short time, especially as quote: "Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser says the company has spare capacity of 2 million barrels a day and can meet increased oil demand in the event of any supply interruptions." You also need to consider the appetite of the funds to push this to those heights.

Fuel Oil Market (June 25)

The front crack opened at -9.70, before strengthening to - 9.30, before weakening to -9.40, closing at -9.35. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.80.

Asia's 180 cSt fuel oil crack hovered around a discount of $5 to crude oil on Monday, easing from the previous session's discount of $4.95 as firm oil prices started to bite.

But the fuel oil crack's average discount of about $5.70 between June 1 and 25 reflects an improvement from May's average discount of $7.10, as persistent demand for power in the Middle East could have given the residue fuel some support. Singapore cash deals were, however, at a standstill for the first time since June 19, although there were several bids and offers.

China's refinery runs eased from a record high in April as state-run refiners began regular maintenance and some independents cut output ahead of a regional summit.

Singapore 380 cSt

Jul18 - 434.25 / 436.25

Aug18 - 428.00 / 430.00

Sep18 - 423.00 / 425.00

Oct18 - 419.00 / 421.00

Nov18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Dec18 - 412.50 / 414.50

Q3-18 - 428.25 / 430.25

Q4-18 - 415.75 / 417.75

Q1-19 - 405.50 / 408.00

Q2-19 - 393.50 / 396.00

CAL19 - 371.75 / 374.75

CAL20 - 297.75 / 302.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Jul18 - 443.00 / 445.00

Aug18 - 437.50 / 439.50

Sep18 - 433.00 / 435.00

Oct18 - 429.25 / 431.25

Nov18 - 426.25 / 428.25

Dec18 - 423.25 / 425.25

Q3-18 - 438.00 / 440.00

Q4-18 - 426.50 / 428.50

Q1-19 - 416.75 / 419.25

Q2-19 - 406.25 / 408.75

CAL19 - 387.00 / 390.00

CAL20 - 321.00 / 326.00

Rotterdam 3.5%

Jul18 - 414.00 / 416.00

Aug18 - 410.50 / 412.50

Sep18 - 406.25 / 408.25

Oct18 - 401.75 / 403.75

Nov18 - 397.50 / 399.50

Dec18 - 393.50 / 395.50

Q3-18 - 410.25 / 412.25

Q4-18 - 397.50 / 399.50

Q1-19 - 387.25 / 389.75

Q2-19 - 373.75 / 376.25

CAL19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL20 - 284.00 / 289.00