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Commentary

Brent closed up $0.23 last night to $79.80 and WTI closed at $71.84, down $0.36. Understandably, based on API forecasts, Brent was trading down around 50c all day until EIA data came out. EIA data showed that last week there was a build on crude oil of 5.8mn bbls and a rise in gasoline stocks of 1.9mn bbls. This was versus a forecast by the Mensa group that we know as API of a drop in crude of 1.3mn bbls and a rise in gasoline stocks of 900kb. As usual, the API were about at accurate as a drunk elephant playing darts on a ferry in choppy waters. You would think that API being wrong by about 6mn bbls and the fact that gasoline inventories rose more than forecast (let's not forget this weekend is the start of driving season) that crude would come off substantially more than the -0.50 levels we saw all day? Alas not. It seems that those non-traditional members of the futures market are intent, for the time being, to keep prices up just below the $80 level. In other area news, the UK North Sea had a licensing round for 123 new licenses. I'm sure the popularity of Brent will increase as the low-sulphur world arrives come 2020; so some smart investment there. And now for our fun fundamental fact of the week: during the week ending May 20 2016 US crude production was 8.767mn bpd. So, as of the latest data, the US is producing 1.958mn bpd more than it was years ago. Nice. Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (May 23)

The front crack opened at -11.00, strengthening to -10.80, before weakening to -11.00. The Cal 19 was valued at -17.05.

Asia's 380 cSt and 180 cSt fuel oil cash premiums edged higher on Wednesday amid stronger buying interest for fuel oil cargoes in the Singapore trading window.

However, higher bids from buyers failed to attract many suppliers on Wednesday with only one cargo trade being reported in the Singapore window

The 380 cSt fuel oil cash premiums were at a three-session high of $2.42 a tonne to Singapore quotes on Wednesday, up from $2.28 per tonne in the previous session and $1.71 a tonne on Monday.

Economic Data and Events: (Times are London.)

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, May 19

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, May 12

* 2pm: FHFA U.S. House Price Index, March

* 2:45pm : Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, May 20

* 3pm: U.S. Existing Home Sales, April

* Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

* St. Petersburg International Economic Forum starts, with global top company executives and govt officials attending, day 1 of 3

* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 447.00 / 449.00

Jul18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Aug18 - 440.50 / 442.50

Sep18 - 437.00 / 439.00

Oct18 - 433.50 / 435.50

Nov18 - 430.00 / 432.00

Q3-18 - 440.50 / 442.50

Q4-18 - 430.00 / 432.00

Q1-19 - 417.75 / 420.25

Q2-19 - 403.75 / 406.25

CAL19 - 383.25 / 386.25

CAL20 - 310.75 / 315.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 456.25 / 458.25

Jul18 - 453.50 / 455.50

Aug18 - 450.25 / 452.25

Sep18 - 447.00 / 449.00

Oct18 - 444.00 / 446.00

Nov18 - 440.75 / 442.75

Q3-18 - 450.25 / 452.25

Q4-18 - 440.75 / 442.75

Q1-19 - 429.00 / 431.50

Q2-19 - 415.50 / 418.00

CAL19 - 397.75 / 400.75

CAL20 - 324.75 / 329.75

Rotterdam Barges

Jun18 - 432.50 / 434.50

Jul18 - 429.50 / 431.50

Aug18 - 426.00 / 428.00

Sep18 - 421.75 / 423.75

Oct18 - 417.25 / 419.25

Nov18 - 412.50 / 414.50

Q3-18 - 425.75 / 427.75

Q4-18 - 412.50 / 414.50

Q1-19 - 399.75 / 402.25

Q2-19 - 385.00 / 387.50

CAL19 - 362.25 / 365.25

CAL20 - 296.75 / 301.75