---

Commentary

Brent crude oil futures were at $71.78 per barrel at 06:43 GMT, down $ 80 cents, or 1.10 percent, from their last close, and U.S. WTI crude futures were down $ 68 cents, or 1.01 percent, at $66.71 a barrel. Well, things have escalated quickly, and that's not just the price of crude. Geopolitics are reaching a new tension point with the pieces of the chess board being put into play across the Middle East. However, the airstrikes won't be the factor that will really push up this market. Behind this front story is the prospect of the Iran sanctions, which will have the big effect economically and politically. The renegotiation calls have pulled the pin on the grenade; the options now are dropping it or putting the pin back in - watch that space. Let's go back to the fundamentals for a second. US oil rigs were up 7 last week to 815 the highest since March 2015. A trade spat between China and the US could significantly affect the market: a 1 percent decline in global GDP growth would result in a reduction in demand growth by 690,000 bpd.

Fuel Oil Market (April 13)

The front crack opened at -12.40, weakening to -12.50, before strengthening to -12.45, closing at -12.85. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.70.

Sentiment in the 380 cSt fuel oil market continued to show signs of improvement on Friday with the frontmonth 380 cSt time spread widening its backwardation, and the May crack to Brent crude holding steady despite rising crude oil prices. However, the improved 380 cst market and weaker 180-cst prices weighed on the frontmonth viscosity spread on Friday despite Pakistan's PSO this week announcing it would seek to import up to 865,000 tonnes of low-viscosity fuel oil in May and June.

Singapore marine fuel sales in the first quarter climbed to a record high in 2018 despite lower volumes of year-onyear March sales. Singapore marine fuel sales in the first quarter totalled a record 12.91 million tonnes this year, up 2 percent from the previous record.

Economic Data and Events

* Kuwait Oil and Gas Summit, Kuwait City, with speakers to include OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo and oil ministers from Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, 1st day of 2

* EIA's Monthly Drilling Productivity Report

* Angola preliminary crude program for June

* Russia 5-day Urals program for May

* BP publishes its sustainability report

* Bloomberg proprietary forecast of Cushing crude inventory change, plus weekly analyst survey of crude, gasoline, distillates inventories before Wednesday's EIA report

* Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 381.50 / 383.50

Jun18 - 380.75 / 382.75

Jul18 - 380.00 / 382.00

Aug18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Sep18 - 376.50 / 378.50

Oct18 - 374.75 / 376.75

Q3-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q4-18 - 372.00 / 374.00

Q1-19 - 363.75 / 366.25

Q2-19 - 356.50 / 359.00

CAL19 - 333.25 / 336.25

CAL20 - 275.25 / 280.25

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 391.25 / 393.25

Jun18 - 390.75 / 392.75

Jul18 - 390.50 / 392.50

Aug18 - 389.00 / 391.00

Sep18 - 387.25 / 389.25

Oct18 - 385.50 / 387.50

Q3-18 - 389.00 / 391.00

Q4-18 - 383.00 / 385.00

Q1-19 - 375.00 / 377.50

Q2-19 - 369.00 / 371.50

CAL19 - 348.25 / 351.25

CAL20 - 299.25 / 304.25

Rotterdam Barges

May18 369.50 / 371.50

Jun18 368.75 / 370.75

Jul18 367.00 / 369.00

Aug18 364.75 / 366.75

Sep18 362.00 / 364.00

Oct18 - 358.50 / 360.50

Q3-18 364.50 / 366.50

Q4-18 354.75 / 356.75

Q1-19 346.50 / 349.00

Q2-18 336.75 / 339.25

CAL19 315.25 / 318.25

CAL20 254.25 / 259.25