Fri 2 Feb 2018, 09:22 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night up 0.76 to $69.65, WTI closed up 1.07 to $65.80. I've woken up this morning with that same fear you have when you have had a heavy night with your mates and you haven't yet spoken to your partner to figure out if you're in trouble or if you did anything wrong. Why do I have that fear? Well as soon as I mentioned my bet yesterday re crude hitting $85 per bbl, Goldman Sachs seemed to immediately then publish their forecast saying that it could very well get up to those kind of numbers. The more eagle-eyed of you were quick to point this fact out to me, so I very much appreciate that. I'm sure people are just waiting for the market to realize what it has done, correct by gapping down quite a few bucks and then people will see the wood for the trees. Brent and WTI are up over 50pct since June 2017 - 50 percent! The US dollar is at a three-year low and I'm pretty sure OPEC will come out soon saying they are happy with the cuts and both of these things will give Brent another boost.

Fuel Oil Market (February 1)

The front crack opened at -10.00, weakening to -10.65, -10.50, before weakening to -10.70. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.50.

Lower supplier offers for physical fuel oil cargoes boosted trade activity in the Singapore window on Thursday to its highest levels in more than a week, but weighed on fuel cash differentials. Cash premiums of 380 cSt fuel oil slipped for a second straight session to its lowest in more than one week on Thursday, while cash differentials of 180 cSt fuel oil flipped to a narrow discount after trading at a premium for more than a week.

Singapore weekly onshore fuel oil inventories rose 1% to a four-week high of 22.516 million barrels (about 3.36 million tonnes) in the week ended Jan. 31 despite fewer net imports. Net fuel oil imports into Singapore fell to 626,000 tonnes in the week to Jan. 31, down 41% from the week before, weighed down by higher fuel oil exports from the city-state which climbed to 681,000 tonnes, up 135% from a nine-week low seen in the week before.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. Change in non-Farm Payrolls, Jan.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Avg Hourly Earnings, Jan.

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ~6pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly scheduled report on futures and options positions

* 3pm: University of Michigan Sentiment, Jan. (final)

* Today, no exact timing:

** Bloomberg New Energy Finance Future of Mobility Summit in Palo Alto, final day

** Exxon Mobil 4Q earnings

** Platts Middle Distillates Conference in Antwerp, final day

** China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association releases report on nation's 2017 & 2018 oil and petrochemical markets

Singapore 380 cSt

Mar18 - 383.75 / 385.75

Apr18 - 383.75 / 385.75

May18 - 383.50 / 385.50

Jun18 - 383.00 / 385.00

Jul18 - 382.00 / 384.00

Aug18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q2-18 - 383.25 / 385.25

Q3-18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q4-18 - 375.50 / 378.00

Q1-19 - 367.00 / 369.50

CAL19 - 329.75 / 332.75

CAL20 - 262.00 / 267.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Mar18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Apr18 - 389.50 / 391.50

May18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Jun18 - 389.00 / 391.00

Jul18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Aug18 - 386.75 / 388.75

Q2-18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Q3-18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Q4-18 - 382.25 / 384.75

Q1-19 - 375.25 / 377.75

CAL19 - 338.75 / 341.75

CAL20 - 272.75 / 277.75

Rotterdam Barges

Mar18 371.25 / 373.25

Apr18 371.25 / 373.25

May18 370.75 / 372.75

Jun18 370.00 / 372.00

Jul18 368.75 / 370.75

Aug18 - 366.75 / 368.75

Q2-18 370.50 / 372.50

Q3-18 365.50 / 367.50

Q4-18 356.25 / 358.75

Q1-19 345.75 / 348.25

CAL19 306.75 / 309.75

CAL20 241.75 / 246.75


Areion vessel. Dorian LPG takes delivery of dual-fuel VLGC capable of carrying ammonia  

The 93,000-cbm Areion can run on LPG or fuel oil and transport ammonia cargoes.

FSRU Toscana alongside Green Zeebrugge vessel. RINA awards ISCC EU certification to OLT Offshore LNG Toscana for bio-LNG supply  

Certification enables bio-LNG use in the EU as a renewable fuel under RED II and RED III directives.

World Shipping Council at IMO meeting. WSC calls for safe maritime corridor as 20,000 seafarers remain trapped in the Persian Gulf  

Industry body urges IMO member states to establish safe passage and supply access.

Graphic promoting Auramarine webinar titled 'Sustainable Fueling Part 3: Ammonia - next alternative fuel in marine'. Auramarine to host webinar on ammonia as marine fuel in April  

Finnish firm will explore ammonia’s role in maritime decarbonisation at its third spring webinar.

Front cover of study by WinGD and Envision Energy titled 'Renewable Fuel Economics: An OPEX illustration based on current costs'. Green ammonia could reach cost parity with VLSFO and LNG by 2050, study finds  

WinGD and Envision Energy study projects green ammonia operational costs competitive with conventional marine fuels.

Elenger Marine's LNG bunkering vessel Optimus alongside Brittany Ferries’ Saint-Malo. Bureau Veritas verifies methane emissions on Brittany Ferries’ LNG vessels  

Verification enables ferry operator to report measured methane slip instead of regulatory default values.

Map showing existing and planned Emission Control Areas (ECAs). Alliance calls for urgent black carbon action as new Arctic emission control areas take effect  

Canadian Arctic and Norwegian Sea ECAs now in force, with compliance deadline set for March 2027.

Artistic impression of battery-electric ferry for operation on Perth’s Swan River. Lloyd’s Register to class Western Australia’s first electric ferry fleet  

Echo Marine Group partners with Lloyd’s Register on five battery-electric ferries for Perth’s Swan River.

Thomas Kazakos, secretary general of The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS). ICS condemns Middle East shipping attacks as 20,000 seafarers remain trapped  

Industry body calls for urgent state action to resupply vessels and enable crew changes.

Molslinjen ferry illustration. Molslinjen order propels Australia to top of battery vessel production rankings  

Danish ferry operator’s three-catamaran order at Incat Tasmania shifts global manufacturing landscape, analysis shows.