Fri 2 Feb 2018, 09:22 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night up 0.76 to $69.65, WTI closed up 1.07 to $65.80. I've woken up this morning with that same fear you have when you have had a heavy night with your mates and you haven't yet spoken to your partner to figure out if you're in trouble or if you did anything wrong. Why do I have that fear? Well as soon as I mentioned my bet yesterday re crude hitting $85 per bbl, Goldman Sachs seemed to immediately then publish their forecast saying that it could very well get up to those kind of numbers. The more eagle-eyed of you were quick to point this fact out to me, so I very much appreciate that. I'm sure people are just waiting for the market to realize what it has done, correct by gapping down quite a few bucks and then people will see the wood for the trees. Brent and WTI are up over 50pct since June 2017 - 50 percent! The US dollar is at a three-year low and I'm pretty sure OPEC will come out soon saying they are happy with the cuts and both of these things will give Brent another boost.

Fuel Oil Market (February 1)

The front crack opened at -10.00, weakening to -10.65, -10.50, before weakening to -10.70. The Cal 19 was valued at -15.50.

Lower supplier offers for physical fuel oil cargoes boosted trade activity in the Singapore window on Thursday to its highest levels in more than a week, but weighed on fuel cash differentials. Cash premiums of 380 cSt fuel oil slipped for a second straight session to its lowest in more than one week on Thursday, while cash differentials of 180 cSt fuel oil flipped to a narrow discount after trading at a premium for more than a week.

Singapore weekly onshore fuel oil inventories rose 1% to a four-week high of 22.516 million barrels (about 3.36 million tonnes) in the week ended Jan. 31 despite fewer net imports. Net fuel oil imports into Singapore fell to 626,000 tonnes in the week to Jan. 31, down 41% from the week before, weighed down by higher fuel oil exports from the city-state which climbed to 681,000 tonnes, up 135% from a nine-week low seen in the week before.

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. Change in non-Farm Payrolls, Jan.

* 1:30pm: U.S. Avg Hourly Earnings, Jan.

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ~6pm: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly scheduled report on futures and options positions

* 3pm: University of Michigan Sentiment, Jan. (final)

* Today, no exact timing:

** Bloomberg New Energy Finance Future of Mobility Summit in Palo Alto, final day

** Exxon Mobil 4Q earnings

** Platts Middle Distillates Conference in Antwerp, final day

** China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association releases report on nation's 2017 & 2018 oil and petrochemical markets

Singapore 380 cSt

Mar18 - 383.75 / 385.75

Apr18 - 383.75 / 385.75

May18 - 383.50 / 385.50

Jun18 - 383.00 / 385.00

Jul18 - 382.00 / 384.00

Aug18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q2-18 - 383.25 / 385.25

Q3-18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q4-18 - 375.50 / 378.00

Q1-19 - 367.00 / 369.50

CAL19 - 329.75 / 332.75

CAL20 - 262.00 / 267.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Mar18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Apr18 - 389.50 / 391.50

May18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Jun18 - 389.00 / 391.00

Jul18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Aug18 - 386.75 / 388.75

Q2-18 - 389.25 / 391.25

Q3-18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Q4-18 - 382.25 / 384.75

Q1-19 - 375.25 / 377.75

CAL19 - 338.75 / 341.75

CAL20 - 272.75 / 277.75

Rotterdam Barges

Mar18 371.25 / 373.25

Apr18 371.25 / 373.25

May18 370.75 / 372.75

Jun18 370.00 / 372.00

Jul18 368.75 / 370.75

Aug18 - 366.75 / 368.75

Q2-18 370.50 / 372.50

Q3-18 365.50 / 367.50

Q4-18 356.25 / 358.75

Q1-19 345.75 / 348.25

CAL19 306.75 / 309.75

CAL20 241.75 / 246.75


Tangier Maersk vessel. Maersk takes delivery of first methanol-capable vessel in 9,000-teu series  

Tangier Maersk is the first of six mid-size container ships with methanol-capable dual-fuel engines.

IBIA MFM bunkering training course graphic. IBIA to run surveyor training course for mass flow meter-equipped bunkering in Rotterdam  

One-day course scheduled for 19 February aims to prepare professionals for MFM-equipped bunkering operations.

CO2 carrier vessel aerial view. MOL secures two 12,000-cbm CO2 carriers for Northern Lights expansion  

Japanese shipowner to deliver vessels in 2028 for cross-border carbon transport and storage project.

MOL and ONGC VLEC long-term charter signing. MOL and ONGC sign 15-year charter deal for two ethane carriers  

Japanese shipowner expands fleet to 16 vessels with newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2028.

Vessels at sea. Dual-fuel container ship and vehicle carrier fleet reaches 400 vessels  

World Shipping Council reports 83% increase in operational dual-fuel vessels during 2025.

Photograph of a blue cargo vessel. Lloyd’s Register publishes first guidance notes for onboard hydrogen generation systems  

Classification society addresses regulatory gap as shipowners explore producing hydrogen from alternative fuels onboard.

Erasmusbrug bridge in Rotterdam. Rotterdam bunker industry faces upheaval as new regulations drive up costs and shift volumes  

Red III compliance costs and a mass flow meter mandate are creating operational challenges across the ARA region.

Neil Chapman, VPS. VPS appoints Neil Chapman as managing director for the Americas  

Maritime services company names industry veteran to lead regional operations and client partnerships.

Oil refinery infrastructure. Maritime industry shifts towards LNG as alternative fuel enthusiasm stalls  

Geopolitical concerns drive shipping leaders to prioritise established fuels over newer alternatives, survey finds.

OceanScore logo. OceanScore reaches $5m annual recurring revenue as emissions compliance demand grows  

Hamburg-based firm supports compliance workflows for more than 2,500 vessels as regulations enter operational phases.





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