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By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

But words from OPEC countries seem to be worth quite a lot of dollars. $50 million of them it seems.

As Brent tumbled towards 43.50 usd/bbl yesterday evening, another set of OPEC comments hit the scene.

This sent Brent up towards 45 usd/bbl. Considering OPEC produces 33.5 mbpd, that is $50m right there. (obviously assuming we stay at current levels until tonight).

The words, and we are paraphrasing here: "sure, we'll make a deal. The details you say? oh we're still working on that".

With only 15 days until the Vienna meeting, we remain somewhat skeptical of a clear cut deal. Rather we are working with a base case scenario where OPEC muddles through and either (i) kick the much dented can down the road, or (ii) re-define production levels/exempt certain types of crude from the production target.

Later today some non-important macro figures are due (Inflation from U.K. @ 10.30 CET; EU GDP for q3 @ 11.00 CET and U.S. Retail Sales @14.30 CET as well as some speeches by various members of the U.S. central banks throughout the day, which won't influence the price of oil at all).

Watch out for technical trading today in the range of 44.50-45.50. A break out either way could set of a minor domino effect in the direction of the break-out.

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A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.