Thu 1 Sep 2016, 06:13 GMT

Inventories up, and crude goes down again


EIA inventory rise of 2.3 million barrels was much greater than anticipated.



More supply, as we have come to know all too well in the glutted-out world of oil, is most often accompanied by a drop in price, as selling whatever it is that is being sold becomes more competitive. Today, disappointingly to those holding oil futures, was further evidence in support of this basic market reality. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its report on Wednesday, revealing that crude stockpiles were up for a second consecutive week for the week ending August 26th. Based on analysts' speculative reports earlier in the week, investors were prepared for an increase of 0.9 million to 1.3 million barrels; however the EIA official numbers showed a considerably greater increase at 2.3 million barrels, leaving American stockpiles at 529.5 million barrels on August 26th. This, perhaps, was the driving news of the day which saw the price of benchmark crude plummet.

Other factors influencing Wednesday's trading session include: Iraq claiming that they are now prepared to back output freeze talks, and further greenback-supporting news being expected with the release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls Report this coming Friday morning.

Despite earlier comments by top Iraqi officials suggesting that Iraq, the second highest producing OPEC member nation, would not be interested in an output freeze agreement, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi reversed this sentiment at an August 30th news conference saying instead, "We support freezing oil production by OPEC due to the sharp decline of oil prices."

Perhaps the subtext to al-Abadi's statement is that all oil-producing companies and nations are feeling the squeeze of the new oil economy and would be open to just about anything which could redirect course and somehow usher in more costly crude, if even temporarily by stimulating investor hope for an improvement to oversupply conditions.

U.S. jobs data is due to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday morning, and with analysts predicting that an increase of 175,000 new jobs in August will be revealed in the report, further resultant bolstering of the American dollar and the potential for higher interest rates, can only serve to further hamper the price of crude oil.

By the end of the Wednesday session, Brent crude futures were down by $1.33, or 2.75 percent, to $47.04 USD a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures became $1.65, or 3.65 percent, cheaper at $44.70 USD a barrel.

Today's main influences, the bears and bulls:

The Bears:

- EIA Report data showing a much greater than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.

- More good news expected for the greenback later in the week, with 175,000 new jobs expected to be detailed in Friday's U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls Report for the month of August.

The Bulls:

- A statement by Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, that Iraq is ready to support an output freeze.


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