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China China China (Brent: $29.3)

Oil prices seem stable - for now - as markets are digesting overnight Chinese data. Economic key figures came out "not as bad" as expected; Q4 GDP was at 1.6% (1.8% previous), Industrial Production at 5.9% (6.2% previous). Though the growth rate on an annual basis is the lowest in 25 years, markets had feared even worse. The data calmed the oil markets along with news of preliminary oil demand figures for the country showing a 2.5% increase from a year ago; to 10.32 mio. barrels per day in 2015.

As western sanctions are lifted against Iran, analysts are now estimating how long it will take for Iranian oil to flow into the market. In our Annual Outlook, our estimate is that Iranian production could increase by 500,000 barrels per day in 1-3 months, increasing to around 1 mio. barrels per day by the end of 2016.

Yesterday, the monthly OPEC report forecast a 660,000-barrel-per-day output decline by non-OPEC members in 2016 which is almost double the expectations from its report last month of 380,000 bpd. The decline is mainly expected to come from the U.S. and is due to recent oil price drops.

Coming up later is German ZEW Economic Sentiment along with UK and EU Consumer Price Indices. Tomorrow sees a row of U.S. economic data along with the weekly oil stocks data from the American Petroleum Institute (one day delayed due to yesterday's U.S. holiday).