The growth outlook for the global shipbuilding industry has deteriorated marginally, according to the latest
Castrol Marine Trade Barometer.
Though down slightly since the last report, five-year growth rates for the sector are still forecast to reach a healthy 3 to 5%, before picking up substantially after 2017.
As a global lubricant supplier, Castrol enables goods to be mined, made and moved around the world. The Castrol Global Trade Barometer (CGTB) is a series of reports tracking the performance and outlook of global trade based on a rolling, five-year forecast of future trade patterns (incorporating a Trade Barometer and Trade Outlook Index). It aims to give the 'big picture view' of world exports and imports, helping senior business decision-makers to understand the drivers of global trade and growth opportunities across five sectors.
The Marine Trade Barometer tracks the value of manufactured ship parts as a measure of the performance of the global shipbuilding industry. It also includes the Castrol Global Port Report, which scrutinises the performance of the 50 largest ports in the world by value.
The latest Castrol Marine Trade Barometer predicts that growth will be driven largely by the Asia-Pacific region, but also Latin America and the Middle East. All European nations but the Netherlands face a downward trend until 2017.
Mandhir Singh, COO at Castrol, commented: "The main growth in shipbuilding will come from Asia-Pacific countries to 2019. These nations are well positioned to supply ultra-large vessels, which shipping companies are increasingly demanding for their fuel efficiency and economies of scale.
"Traditional shipbuilding nations, like Germany and the UK, will need to up their game if they're to compete with the colossal shipyards and deep ports of the Asia-Pacific region."
Top traders
Data from the Marine Trade Barometer reflects the continued importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the global shipbuilding industry. Four of the top five leading traders in ship parts are from the area.
Hong Kong is the biggest success story, overtaking South Korea and China to become the world's second largest ship-parts trading nation. It is one of the few top 10 trading nations in the sector to see a rise in forecast growth since the last report.
Although China's forecast annualised export growth to 2019 has dropped from 10.05% to 8.08%, the economic powerhouse has displaced South Korea as the world's top exporter of ship parts. The dip in growth may be associated with China's ongoing policy to move away from export-led growth towards domestic consumption.
Algeria has jumped straight into the ten fastest-growing ship-parts trading nations at number one, following heavy investment in port capacity, and in wider infrastructure and skills development. The country's proximity to the EU, soaring energy trade and developing relations with China have also helped.
The presence of Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela (a new entry at number seven) in the list of the fastest-growing ship-parts trading nations indicates the rise of Latin America as an important region for the sector in the years to come.
Mandhir Singh said: "Many Asia-Pacific nations have rapidly developing ports, improving infrastructure, low-cost communications and access to potential new customers via valuable shipping trade routes. This places them in a strong position for growth."
Leading ports
The Port Report highlights the importance of emerging nations in global trade - nine of the world's top 10 ports by trading volume are in Asia-Pacific.
The report also confirms the inexorable rise of China as a dominant trading power: seven of the top ten ports are now Chinese.
There has been dramatic change to the list of the world's top 20 fastest-growing ports. Brazil, India and Australian ports no longer dominate as they did in the last report.
Durban in South Africa has entered the list at number one, largely due to the export of automotive parts and commodities. Vancouver and Montreal are also new entries, reflecting improvements in the North American trading environment.
And the entry of seven Turkish and Middle Eastern ports highlights the emergence of fast-growing trade routes, focused particularly on the logistics and infrastructure sectors.
Mandhir Singh remarked: "Ports reflect the overall story of global exports and imports. However, not every nation will benefit equally from the rising tide of trade. Winning the port race depends on geographic advantage, and remaining at the forefront of innovation and development."
