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Market fundamentals remained bearish for oil markets on Thursday morning, favouring tests of the upside. However, technical selling pressure had waned and investors focused on the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The delegates of the cartel's members met even before the official meeting (today) in order to stake their claim. Prices increased as investors covered their short-positions. Since an unexpected output cut would have a bullish effect on futures, market players cut some of their bets on a decline in oil prices. However, the unofficial meeting brought no results. There were "lots of disagreement", Iran's oil minister explained adding that Iran would not abandon its aim to raise output by 1 mbpd after the lift of sanctions. Oil futures thus renewedly lost ground, whilst the ECB's meeting results caused wild gyrations with the euro/dollar. The additional expansive measures announced by Mario Draghi fell short of investors' expectations. This prompted forex traders to cut their short positions in the euro/dollar. The euro surged and was able to defend its gains until the evening. The steadier euro makes dollar-denominated oil less expensive for investors out of the Eurozone. At first oil futures at ICE and NYMEX shrugged off this development but eventually, short-covering prevailed and so oil futures settled with considerable gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 395.25 USD on Thursday, this is +2.25 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 76,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Since the lines of the Stochastic indicator have crossed, the indicator is giving off clear buying signals at ICE as well as at NYMEX charts. However, the resistances which limit the downtrends and the 7-period moving averages remain intact, limiting the upward potential. The buying signals are prompting investors to cover their short-positions. This favours tests of the upside although the technical indicators are likely to be pushed into the background this Friday by the OPEC meeting which is taking place in Vienna. Still, from the merely technical perspective, the constellation is rather bullish. If Brent and WTI sustainably surpass their 7-period moving averages, it would add to the bullish note. In this case oil futures might even approach the 21-period moving averages.

U.S.

Nymex is above average: Oil futures are still trading in a rather narrow range in electronic trade this morning. However, volatility is likely to increase in the course of the day. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning. Market players are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open today and for the release of several important indicators out of the Eurozone and the USA, particularly the official monthly statistics on the US labour market. However, the OPEC's meeting should be in focus this Friday.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 4-12)
380cst $188
180cst $283
MGO $437

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 4-12)
380cst $200
180cst $255
MGO $448

Singapore (delivered indications 4-12)

Brent is up with +$0.79 for December contracts. Singapore paper is up with +$3.50 for 180cst with +$3.00 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst +$3.75 and 380cst with +$3.50 with MGO contracts Dec with +$0.95 and in Jan with +$1.07.The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$13.60, 380cst with -$13.22 and MGO with -$1.28.

380cst $200
180cst $216
MGO $403

Fujairah (delivered indications 4-12)

380cst $200
180cst $236
MGO $603

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $188
MGO 0.1%S: $363