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Oil futures edged higher on Thursday, one day after falling to three-week lows as oversupply concerns remained a factor for oil markets.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX tended to the downside on Wednesday morning, weighed down by bearish fundamentals - like the API's data on US oil inventories - and by the bearish technical constellation. Investors took some profits at the beginning of European trading but losses remained limited as market players were still waiting for comments on the OPEC meeting which took place in Vienna. In the course of the morning, traders thus covered some of their short-positions before crude oil futures renewedly declined in the afternoon. Reports saying that the meeting between OPEC members and other producers didn't even bring the question of output cuts on the table weighed on investor sentiment. The fact that Iran's clerical leader on Wednesday approved of the nuclear deal between the West and Iran added to the bearish tone. Given the massive builds in US crude oil inventories which the API had reported Tuesday night, WTI and Brent lost ground in particular. However, the DOE's report also contained bullish components, like the increasing refinery throughput, the rise in product demand and the draw in product inventories. This pushed oil futures higher temporarily. Even so, oil futures failed to defend their gains as the bearish factors dominated. Oil futures thus shed most of their earlier gains in the evening. Whilst product futures settling unchanged or slightly higher, still buoyed by the draw in stockpiles, crude oil futures remained in the red.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 443.75 USD on Wednesday, this is +1.00 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 52,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator have meanwhile converged at the Brent and the WTI chart, which is why the indicator can be assessed as neutral. At the Gasoil chart, the lines of the indicator have already crossed and so the indicator is providing a buying signal. Along with the fact that the RSI and the Stochastic are in oversold territory, this favours upward moves. However, market participants are still waiting for the RSI and the Stochastic indicator to give more bullish cues. Meanwhile, the 7-period and the 21-period moving average are still slightly bearish after having given off a selling signal earlier this week. Overall, the technical constellation is thus neutral this morning. If oil futures drop below Wednesday's lows, the buying signal at the Gasoil chart would wane. The bearish factors would then regain the upper hand. If the Stochastic indicator confirms the buying signal at the Brent and the WTI chart, however, the bullish factors would predominate.

U.S.

Nymex on average : Oil futures edged higher in early morning trade, with crude oil futures being dragged higher by the steadier product futures. However, upward potential has remained limited so far. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average this morning. Market players are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, as well as the economic indicators which are on the agenda. Moreover, they will eye the ECB press conference which follows the meeting of the central bank's Governing Council.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.5; Distillates -1.3; Gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +8.0; Distillates -2.6; Gasoline -0.7 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +7.1; Distillates -2.6; Gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-10)
380cst $220
180cst $286
MGO $470

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-10)
380cst $233
180cst $285
MGO $475

Singapore (delivered indications 22-10)

Brent is losing with -$0.12. Singapore paper losing with -$0.50 for 180cst with -$0.30 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$0.75 and 380cst with -$0.55 with MGO contracts Nov up with +$0.73 and in Dec with +$0.74. The cargo market is up with 180cst +$2.27, 380cst down with -$0.17 and MGO with -$0.19.

380cst $228
180cst $243
MGO $431

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-10)

380cst $235
180cst $274
MGO $614

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $223
MGO 0.1%S: $414