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Crude oil futures inched higher this morning, as market participants looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX were weak at the beginning of this week but there was no strong downward movement. Analysts at BNP Paribas and Barclays revised up their price forecasts for Brent after the price rallye in March and April but they still see a bearish market situation due to the continuing oversupply at the oil market. The Baker Hughes report which was released on Friday showed that the number of active US oil rigs decreased again by 11 and is thus to be interpreted as neutral. Market players at ICE and NYMEX rather ignored the Chinese interest rate cut which is expected to stimulate Chinese economy as they are still waiting for Chinese economic indicators which are to be released tomorrow. If the technical constellation was neutral yesterday it still offered some downside to prices until Friday's lows which are close to the 21 day moving average. Oil futures at ICE finally decreased in the early evening due to the analysts' bearish market assessment and the OPEC's strategy report while Brent was thwarted near its support at € 52.43.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at € 526.08 on Monday, this is -€ 5.13 below Friday's settlement. With some 28,900 deals the traded volume (front month) was far below average.

Neither stochastic indicator nor RSI trigger any signal this morning and are thus to be interpreted as neutral. Brent and Gasoil could keep testing the 21 day moving average support while there is still much downside at the WTI chart. If the 21 day moving average is breached sustainably from top to bottom bearish signals would be triggered. The stochastic indicator at the WTI chart could get bearish as its lines converge and would trigger a buying signal if they cross. Therefore, we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX consolidate in a rather narrow range this morning as there are neither technical no fundamental signals this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and for the US Redbook which is the only economic indicator to be published today. Besides, market players are waiting for the US oil inventory data as per API which is to be released tonight at 10.30 pm.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-5)
380cst $350
180cst $468
MGO $678

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-5)
380cst $362
180cst $416
MGO $645

Singapore (delivered indications 12-5)

WTI is losing with -$0.20. Singapore paper is losing with -$1.25 for 180cst with -$1.25 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst -$0.40 and 380cst with -$0.25 with MGO contracts may gaining with +$0.25 and in Jun with +$0.16. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$0.70, 380cst with +$1.27 and MGO with +$0.21.

380cst $378
180cst $397
MGO $582

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-5)

380cst $388
180cst $407
MGO $742

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $355
MGO 0.1%S: $588