---

Crude oil futures edged lower this morning, as negotiations between western diplomats and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program dragged on beyond a deadline.

Oil futures started in a narrow range on Wednesday morning as no framework agreement in nuclear negotiations had been achieved during the night in Lausanne. The Russian foreign minister Lawrow already announced an agreement but other diplomats contradicted. The market player's nervousness increased at the beginning of US trading as well as the oil market's volatility. Many traders bet on falling prices by engaging in short positions in case of an agreement in Iranian negotiations. Therefore, disappointment potential increased and market players tend to cover their short positions due to that, oil futures tested their resistances. Upward potential stayed limited until the release of the US oil inventory data as per DOE. The decrease in US oil production caused a technical buying wave which catapulted oil futures to their highest levels of the week. In combination with the disappointment concerning Iranian nuclear talks, the slight increase in oil futures automatically triggered buying orders which market players engaged in before to assure their short positions. This technical short covering finally caused the strong increase in oil prices especially as many traders already consolidated their risk positions before the long Easter weekend.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at € 496.28 on Wednesday, this is +€ 6.74 abvoe Tuesday's settlement. With some 39,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

WTI's stochastic indicator triggered a buying signal as its lines crossed. The indicators at the Brent and Gasoil charts are still neutral as their lines didn't breach sustainably so far. The technical constellation is to be interpreted as slightly bullish this morning due to the buying signal at the WTI chart but confirming signals at ICE indicating further upward potential are still missing. Technical analysis is expected to be less important than usual due to the fact that market players rather concentrate on fundamentals today.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Oil futures consolidate in a rather narrow range this morning while the oil market stays nervous. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the development in Yemen and Iranian nuclear negotiations, as well as for news concerning the oil rig Abkatun and for today's economic indicators.

Forecast: Crude oil +4.6; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +4.8; Distillates +1.3; Gasoline -4.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +5.2; Distillates ±0.0; Gasoline -4.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-4)
380cst $304
180cst $472
MGO $584

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-4)
380cst $314
180cst $379
MGO $594

Singapore (delivered indications 2-4)

WTI is gaining with +$1.65. Singapore paper is bullish with +$7.25 for 180cst with +$6.25 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst +$7.75 and 380cst with +$7.00 with MGO contracts Apr gaining with +$1.05 and in May with +$1.07. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst +$0.03, 380cst with +$0.86 and MGO neutral with ±$0.00.

380cst $317
180cst $336
MGO $533

Fujairah (delivered indications 2-4)

380cst $316
180cst $340
MGO $736

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $308
MGO 0.1%S: $528