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Crude oil futures edged higher this morning, as the U.S. dollar rally lost some steam ahead of data on U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims due later in the day.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started week on Wednesday morning due to the bearish Chinese economic indicators and the bearish EIA monthly report. Technical selling pressure increased due to the breach of Tuesday's lows and futures kept their week tendency of the last few days. The strong US dollar weighed also on oil futures as in dollar negotiated oil futures get more expensive for traders outside the United States. Therefore, it encouraged profit taking from long positions and fresh short positions. Traders were waiting for the official US oil inventory data as per DOE on Wednesday afternoon as the API's figures which were released on Tuesday only left a big question mark. The DOE's US oil inventory report was released on hour earlier than usual due to the clock change in the United States and finally was clearly bearish. Especially NYMEX futures dropped after the release of these figures while the contracts at ICE reacted rather cautious. Market players used this report to engage again in spread positions counting on an increase in the price difference between ICE and NYMEX. Therefore European futures increased once again in late trading. The upcoming expiry dates of Gasoil's (today) and Brent's (tomorrow) front month caused a strong volatility and short covering. The closure of the Houston Shipping Channel in the United States supported product futures as well. Therefore most oil futures at ICE and NYMEX finally settled higher on Wednesday evening in spite of the bearish US oil inventory data and the strong dollar. Only WTI stayed in the red during the night.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at € 519.18 on Wednesday, this is -€ 3.49 below Tuesday's settlement. With some 28,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The stochastic indicator at ICE triggered buying signals at the Brent and the Gasoil chart after its lines crossed. But the indicator at the WTI chart stays neutral. We consider the technical constellation as neutral to bullish this morning due to the buying signals at ICE. But the confirmation of these signals is still missing at the WTI chart. ICE's short covering could have slightly blurred the stochastic indicator. Therefore, it remains to be seen if this bullish factor will make its way while the technical constellation is rather weak.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Oil futures at ICE continued their upward movement this morning due to technical buying signals. They already breached its Wednesday's highs. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the strikes at US oil refineries and Iranian nuclear negotiations and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Forecast: Crude oil +4.8; Distillates -2.3; Gasoline -1.7 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +4.5; Distillates +2.5; Gasoline -0.2 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -0.4; Distillates +1.7; Gasoline +1.7 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 12-3)
380cst $320
180cst $460
MGO $646

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-3)
380cst $337
180cst $379
MGO $648

Singapore (delivered indications 12-3)

WTI is gaining with +$1.18. Singapore paper is up with +$9.48 for 180cst with +$8.75 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst +9.00 and 380cst with +$8.50 with MGO contracts Mar gaining with +$1.19 and in Apr with +$1.27. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$7.89, 380cst with -$7.05 and MGO bearish with -$1.04.

380cst $321
180cst $342
MGO $549

Fujairah (delivered indications 12-3)

380cst $332
180cst $361
MGO $750

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $303
MGO 0.1%S: $543