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Oil prices dipped this morning after gaining more than a percent in the previous session, but trading was thin as several Asian countries started the Lunar New Year holidays which last for the rest of the week.

On Tuesday morning, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX kept track of Monday's gains testing their upward potential. The unrests in Libya and the bad weather conditions in southern Iraq have dented exports out of these regions. Brent tested its key-resistance at 62.30 USD which proved strong until the afternoon. Even though futures stayed near their highs during this phase, the rising euro sent domestic prices in the currency bloc lower. When US traders returned from the prolonged weekend and NYMEX floor trade began, oil futures slumped. The supply shortages from Libya and Iraq mainly affect the European and the Asian market, whereas inventories in the USA are still more than sufficient. Since experts anticipate yet another rise in US crude oil stocks, oil futures at NYMEX - particularly WTI - rang in a sharp decline in prices. Whilst WTI dropped to its support at 51.00 USD, Brent failed to hit its support at 60.00 USD. In a rather volatile trade, oil futures thus changed direction again in the evening, even marking new highs overnight. Eventually, they finished with slight gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 576.75 USD on Tuesday, this is 9.00 USD below Monday's settlement. With some 66,700 deals the traded volume (front month) was above average.

The stochastic indicator is neutral at the Brent and the WTI chart as its lines have converged without having crossed yet. The RSI stays above 70% at the Gasoil and the Brent chart. This indicator will only generate a selling signal if it drops below this marker. The lines of the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart have meanwhile crossed. Moreover, the RSI slipped below 70% and so there are some selling signals for this contract. From a merely technical perspective, the situation is thus slightly bearish. If the selling cues are confirmed by the stochastic indicator and the RSI at the other charts as well, technical selling pressure should increase significantly. The technical constellation would then turn clearly bearish.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After Tuesday evening's price swings, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX are trading in a narrow range on a higher level this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Market participants are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning the strikes at US oil refineries and the economic indicators that are on the agenda today. Moreover, they are looking ahead to the release of the API's data on US oil inventories, at 10.30 p.m. tonight.

Forecast: Crude oil +3.1; Distillates -2.1; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-2)
380cst $341
180cst $404
MGO $638

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-2)
380cst $357
180cst $383
MGO $630

Singapore (delivered indications 18-2)

WTI is gaining with +$0.56. Singapore paper is up with +$8.95 for 180cst with +$8.70 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst +$8.70 and 380cst with +$7.95 with MGO contracts Mar bullish with +$0.14 and in Apr with +$0.14. The cargo market is bullsh with 180cst +$1.29, 380cst with +$2.22 and MGO with +$0.47.

380cst $363
180cst $384
MGO $564

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-2)

380cst $375
180cst $396
MGO $770

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $333
MGO 0.1%S: $573