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Crude oil prices fell early in Asia on Monday with the focus on a supply demand imbalance that has seen values fall steadily.

Lately, the technical analysis has slightly slipped into the background as the expiry of the Gasoil October contract skewed the technical cues. Moreover, the RSI was in oversold territory and investors Friday were facing a long weekend in the USA. All this favored an upward correction of oil prices at ICE. In early morning trade, futures had still hit the lowest levels they had seen for quite a while, extending the decline they had marked on Wednesday and Thursday but in the course of the day, investors took profits from their short positions (short covering). The buying orders that were resulting from this fostered oil futures. So, they breached several short-term resistances within the boundaries of their downtrends although the overall market sentiment remained bearish. The OPEC's monthly energy report came in less bearish than expected as the cartel left its demand forecasts unchanged. The counter-reaction on the noticeable decline oil markets had seen before continued until the late evening. That is why oil futures settled near Friday's highs.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 763.75 USD on Friday, this is 6.00 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 109,300 deals the traded volume (front month) far above average.

The technical constellation doesn't provide any fresh cues this morning. The lines of the stochastic indicator have crossed at the Gasoil chart, which is why the indicator actually is slightly bullish but this is probably due to the expiry of the Gasoil October contract last Friday. Moreover, the lines of the indicator are currently converging again. Therefore, it can be considered neutral. Only if the stochastic indicator gives buying signals at the Brent or the WTI chart, will the technical constellation turn bullish. If the black line sustainably dropped below the red line again, however, a selling signal would be triggered. But since there are no new cues at the moment, we assess the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: After having sharply declined yesterday, quotations at ICE extended their losses in Asian and electronic trading this morning. The strong support at 88.10 USD has limited losses so far, however. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Today, market players will eye the development at stock and forex markets as well as the situation in the geopolitical hotspots. They will also closely watch the economic indicators that are due today and the OPEC's monthly energy report.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-10)
380cst $512
180cst $612
MGO $878

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-10)
380cst $514
180cst $622
MGO $876

Singapore (delivered indications 13-10)

WTI is losing with -$0.12 Singapore paper is down with -$5.00 for 180cst with -$4.75 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$5.35 and 380cst with -$5.00 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$0.16 and in Nov with -$0.06. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$18.41, 380cst with -$17.41 and MGO with -$0.24.

The Singapore fuel oil prices plunged more than $17.5 during the Asian Platts window last Friday tracking crude drop. The delivered bunker premiums were seen $11.0-8.50 above cargo prices.

380cst $504
180cst $517
MGO $750

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-10)

380cst $528
180cst $592
MGO $965

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The avails of HSFO and LSFO in all of ARA are tight

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $496
(1.0 %) : $511
MGO 0.1%S: $744