Fri 10 Oct 2014, 15:16 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil prices eased in early Asia on Friday as investors awaited fresh cues on demand prospects.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX retreated on Thursday morning. First supports had already been breached by noon, with the bearish market fundamentals outweighing the slightly bullish technical cues. The buying signals at the ICE charts were skewed to the upside due to the fact that the Gasoil October contract is going to expire today and due to some short covering on Wednesday evening. That is why the impact of these signals remained unsurprisingly weak. Even though market players avoided larger short positions until late in the evening as Brent had already approached the psychological support at 90 USD, eventually, selling pressure predominated. Quotations dropped below Wednesday's lows and in the course of the evening Brent even breached the 90 USD support. When oil futures broke below their technical supports, a technical sell-off was triggered that accelerated the decline. The bearish overall situation and the technical selling pressure finally sent the European benchmark down to a new 4-year-low at 88.11 USD last night.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 766.25 USD on Thursday, this is 3.00 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 47,700 deals the traded volume (front month) slightly below average.

The buying signals that were generated at the Brent and the Gasoil chart yesterday morning weren't sustainable. Like expected, the signals of the stochastic indicator at the ICE charts were skewed to the upside having waned by now. The slow stochastic indicator line (%K) has dropped below the red line (%D) at the Brent chart this morning and so the index can be considered bearish again. The selling signal at the Brent chart could only be generated as the indicator was skewed to the upside yesterday, which is why the selling signal is to be treated with caution, too. The breachment of several psychological supports (e.g., at 90 USD Brent) and the fact that oil futures hit lows they hadn't hit for years, more technical downward potential was generated. With regard to the expiry of the Gasoil October contract and with the weekend ahead, yesterday's decline at oil markets might lead to technical profit taking from short positions in the short-term. The technical downtrend remains intact, however.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: After having sharply declined yesterday, quotations at ICE extended their losses in Asian and electronic trading this morning. The strong support at 88.10 USD has limited losses so far, however. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Today, market players will eye the development at stock and forex markets as well as the situation in the geopolitical hotspots. They will also closely watch the economic indicators that are due today and the OPEC's monthly energy report.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-10)
380cst $520
180cst $619
MGO $886

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-10)
380cst $525
180cst $628
MGO $881

Singapore (delivered indications 10-10)

WTI is losing with -$3.51 Singapore paper is down with -$17.90 for 180cst with -$17.75 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$17.70 and 380cst with -$17.00 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$2.72 and in Nov with -$2.70. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$0.71, 380cst gaining with +$0.29 and MGO with +$0.12.

The Singapore fuel oil prices were trading around parity yesterday during the Platts window. The recent Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of +0.58 mbbl to 20.44 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were seen at up to $9.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $516
180cst $532
MGO $767

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-10)

380cst $543
180cst $600
MGO $970

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp) The avails of HSFO and LSFO in all of ARA are very tight Indications for delivered bunkers: 380cst : $503 (1.0 %) : $515 MGO 0.1%S: $745

MGO  

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