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Market in Brief

Yesterday Crude prices managed to stabilize closing in the black: the November WTI contract rose +$1.03 to settle at $94.57/bbl and Brent settled at $97.20/bbl, inched up +$0.20. the Price action continues to be on the Brent and WTI spread. The premium of Brent over the WTI extended its weakness, narrowing to $2.6/bbl. Lately the Eurozone and Chinese economies have reported weaker than expected figures: the latest HSBC China Manufacturing Index came out slightly lower at 50.2 vs 50.5 while ongoing civil protests in Hong Kong dampened Asian equities sentiment. The stronger US dollar against major currencies also pressures the US dollar denominated crude futures. The recent step up military actions against the terrorist group in Iraq further reduced possibility of supply disruptions while Libyan production is holding on at around 900 kbpd. This morning, crude prices are trading higher.

Fuel oil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil markets started the week on a slightly lower note. Delivered 380cst product in both Antwerp and Rotterdam was assessed app.$3/mt down at the end of the day. Suppliers in the area reported tight hsfo avails both for 380cst and RMK with the later expected to improve not earlier than mid October. The Singapore fuel oil prices softened by around -$3.25 during the Asian Platts window. The weaker outright prices saw stronger bunker demand. The delivered bunker premiums at around +$9.25 above cargo prices. This morning both markets are trading higher.

Forward Indications

Product	Oct	Nov	Dec	Q115	Q215	2015
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	94,35	93,42	92,18	91,69	90,37	90,20
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	97,78	98,27	98,99	99,33	99,69	98,23
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	820,08	822,50	825,25	-	-	-
LS ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	-	-	-	843,08	847,94	850,62
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	538,25	533,25	531,25	537,25	540,25	540,50
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	536,75	531,25	529,00	535,25	538,25	538,25
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	551,50	544,00	541,50	547,25	551,00	551,75
3% no. 6 USGC WB	84,50	84,02	83,72	84,97	85,22	85,23
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	560,25	557,00	556,00	557,50	559,50	560,50
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	819,25	822,25	824,25	-	-	-
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	543,50	538,50	536,50	541,50	544,50	544,75
Physical Singapore 380 CST	565,50	562,25	561,25	562,75	564,75	565,75

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
PCE Prices- Core	Medium	29-Sep	8:30 AM	Aug	0.00%	0.10%	0.10%
Case- Shiller 20-city Index	Medium	30-Sep	9:00 AM	Jul	7.00%	8.10%	-
Chicago PMI	Medium	30-Sep	9:45 AM	Sep	59	64.3	-
Consumer Confidence	High	30-Sep	10:00 AM	Sep	93	92.4	-
ADP Employment Change	High	1-Oct	8:15 AM	Sep	225K	204K	-
ISM Index	High	1-Oct	10:00 AM	Sep	60	59	-
Construction Spending	Medium	1-Oct	10:00 AM	Aug	0.50%	1.80%	-
Initial Claims	Medium	2-Oct	8:30 AM	27-sep	300K	293K	-
Factory Orders	Medium	2-Oct	10:00 AM	Aug	-9.50%	10.50%	-
Nonfarm Payrolls	High	3-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	245K	142K	-
Unemployment Rate	High	3-Oct	8:30 AM	Sep	6.10%	6.10%	-
ISM Services	Medium	3-Oct	10:00 AM	Sep	59	59.6	-