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Crude oil futures edged higher on Tuesday, supported by data showing that factory activity in China unexpectedly picked up this month.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX edged lower on Monday morning keeping track of the slightly bearish market fundamentals and the technical constellation. Around noon, quotations were briefly bolstered by short-covering with WTI as the front month contract of the US crude oil sort was going to expire in the evening. Eventually, the weaker tendency prevailed, however, with economic indicators out of the Eurozone and the USA falling short of expectations. Oil prices dropped below partly important supports before losses were limited by the supports at 97.00 USD Brent and 815.00 USD Gasoil. In the course of the evening, after our submission deadline, there were reports on the production at Libya's el Sharara oil field having been resumed. This added to selling pressure at oil markets. Some investors took profit from the sharp decline in oil futures, covering their short positions in late trade. Quotations thus slightly pulled back from their lows. At the end of the day, oil futures in London and New York still settled with noticeable losses, however.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 815.00 USD on Monday, this is -8.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 50,300 deals the traded volume (front month) was slightly below average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator at the ICE and NYMEX charts are converging again and so the bearish impact of the selling signals the indicator had provided last week has meanwhile waned. Buying signals will only be generated if the lines of the indicator renewedly cross. The RSI has climbed above 30% at the Brent chart giving bullish cues. At the other charts, the indicator isn't giving any signals at the moment. Even though the buying signal the RSI is giving at the Brent chart is a bullish cue, the superordinate downtrend still indicates that the downward move will continue. As long as there aren't any fresh buying signals, for example from the stochastic indicator or the RSI at the Gasoil chart, we keep regarding the technical constellation as neutral (for the time being).

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: Oil prices climbed in Asian and electronic trading this morning, fostered by the surprisingly good data out of China, the selling signal of the RSI at the Brent chart and some short-covering. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average for this time of day. Market players will eye the development at stock and forex markets today. They will also monitor the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and today's economic indicators.

Forecasts: Crude oil +0.8; Distillates +0.4; Gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-9)
380cst $560
180cst $664
MGO $927

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-9)
380cst $565
180cst $656
MGO $924

Singapore (delivered indications 23-9)

WTI is losing with -$0.07 Singapore paper is up with +$1.00 for 180cst with -$0.25 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$0.80 and 380cst with +$0.30 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$0.18 and in Nov with -$0.11. The cargo market is losing with 180cst +$1.06, 380cst losing with +$0.55 and MGO losing with -$0.08.

The Singapore fuel oil prices rose marginally, up to $1.0/mt, during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market fundamentals remained steady with physical premiums seen around $3.0/mt. The delivered bunker premiums were app. +$9.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $565
180cst $578
MGO $819

Fujairah (delivered indications 23-9)

380cst $585
180cst $628
MGO $978

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $539
(1.0 %) : $549
MGO 0.1%S: $785