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West Texas Intermediate and Brent oil futures edged higher on Monday, as concerns over escalating violence in Iraq continued to support prices.

After Thursday's price rally oil futures kept track of their gains on Friday, surging in the course of the morning. Brent almost hit 115 USD but pulled back from its highs by noon already testing first supports. In the course of the afternoon, quotations consolidated on a high level. Price rises as well as profit taking remained limited at that point in time as the situation in Iraq neither improved nor deteriorated. As to the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine, there was a proposal on Friday afternoon which would have been accepted by Kiev. But over the weekend the talks stalled again. By now, Ukraine is getting prepared for the suspension of Russian gas deliveries. Given the unstable situation in Iraq, a risk premium of about 4 to 5 USD was added to Brent. Other factors like the IEA's bullish monthly energy report or economic indicators were put into the background by this topic, having had next to no impact on oil markets on Friday. Oil futures thus consolidated on a higher level on Friday settling nearly unchanged compared to Thursday.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 920.75 USD on Friday, this is +9.25 USD vs Thursday's settlement. With some 76,600 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

Whilst the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil and the WTI chart is neutral, the lines of the indicator have meanwhile crossed at the Brent chart giving a selling signal. From a merely technical perspective, the situation is thus slightly bearish. However, the bearish note is still rather unstable as there are no confirming cues from the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil and the WTI chart. Investors are only likely to take considerable profits if the lines of the indicator also clearly cross at these charts. Apart from this, the RSI is in overbought territory. It doesn't seem to be able to break back below 70% at the moment, which would be another bearish signal. At last, fundamental factors predominated the markets in the past few days. This should be the case today, too. Therefore, the technical aspects might renewedly slip into the background.

U.S.

Nymex above average: At first there was some profit taking at oil markets this morning but the downward move was limited. Meanwhile oil futures are already edging higher again. However, markets stilll seem to struggle to find a direction. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of day reflecting investors' nervosity. Market players are now eying the opening of stock and forex markets and the development of the situation in Iraq. They will also closely watch the development of the gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia. Moreover, they are waiting for today's economic indicators, and the IEA's monthly energy report.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 16-6)
380cst $610
180cst $719
MGO $983

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 16-6)
380cst $615
180cst $695
MGO $986

Singapore (delivered indications 16-6)

WTI is down with -$0.09. Singapore paper is up with -3.10 for 180cst and -$2.55 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$2.80 and 380cst with -$2.90 with MGO contracts being bearish in Jul with -0.65 and in Aug with -$0.52. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$9.64, 380cst with +$10.01 and MGO with +$2.92.

The Singapore fuel oil prices rose between $5.5-4.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking firm crude values. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a slight build of 0.62 million mt to 21.68 million mt. The delivered bunker premiums softened to app.$3.5 above cargo prices yesterday.

380cst $618
180cst $633
MGO $928

Fujairah (delivered indications 16-6)

380cst $628
180cst $655
MGO $989

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $592
(1.0 %) : $637
180cst: $632
MGO 0.1%S: $890