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Crude oil futures lost ground early in Asia this morning on profit taking after a long weekend that saw continued tension between the West and Russia over events in the Ukraine.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX settled higher on Thursday, market participants being cautious ahead of the long Easter weekend not wanting to take any risks in case of an escalation of the situation in the Ukraine. The significant price retreat on Monday morning was mainly due to the fact that Russia, the Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union jointly signed an agreement last week to pursue stability in the region. But hopes for an improvement of the situation quickly vanished when pro-russian separatists resisted against the disarmament and government buildings were not evacuated according to plan. Both sides blamed each other for the failure of the agreement and oil futures rose, profiting from a rise in the risk premium and data bolstering hopes for more robust improvement in the U.S. economy, released in the afternoon. Prices thus compensated all their losses and terminated at opening level in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 927.50 USD on Monday. This was 0.25 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 22,800 deals, the traded volume was well below average.

The two lines of the stochastic indicator have crossed at the Brent and the Gasoil chart making the indicator bearish even though the selling signal is still weak. At the WTI chart the indicator does not yet give a selling signal but its RSI indicator has turned bearish after having breached the 70 line. The RSI at the ICE is still neutral. Given the few slightly bearish signals we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning even though we are convinced that geopolitical risks will dominate the development of the market today.

U.S.

Oil futures consolidate on their high level in Asian trading and Globex electronic trading this morning in a quiet market after the long Easter weekend in Europe and East Asia. The traded volume at NYMEX is well below average for this time of day. Investors are monitoring the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep an eye on today's economic indicators see economic calendar as well as at the developments in Libya and in Ukraine.

Forecasts: Crude oil +3.0; Distillates -1.9; Gasoline -0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-4)
380cst $609
180cst $668
MGO $999

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-4)
380cst $624
180cst $664
MGO $995

Singapore (delivered indications 22-4)

WTI is up slightly with +$0.05. Singapore paper is also up with +$5.35 for 180cst and +$4.65 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$5.10 and 380cst +$4.55 with MGO contracts being bullish May +$0.50 and Jun +$0.54. The cargo market rose with 180 cst +$0.75, 380cst +$1.22 and MGO slightly down with -$0.03.

The Singapore fuel oil prices started the week after the long Easter holiday, gaining between +$0.5 to +$1.5 during the Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were around +$2.5 above cargo prices yesterday.

380cst $591
180cst $606
MGO $933

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-4)

380cst $605
180cst $646
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $586
(1.0 %) : $636
180cst: $626
MGO 0.1%S: $863