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Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Thursday in a rebound from overnight as geopolitical tension in the Ukraine and demand prospects in China offered support.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX held steady on Wednesday morning consolidating on a high level. Chinese economic indicators released early Wednesday morning failed to give oil markets a new direction and so investors continued to focus on the events in Ukraine. There, the military operation against the pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country began. However, it soon lost momentum as several troops defected, taking the equipment with them. According to investors, the likelihood of a civil war has thus renewedly increased. Traders particularly raised the risk premium for ICE futures, which consequently surged breaching short-term resistances. Along with technical buying orders, the stochastic indicator gave a buying signal that accelerated the rise. Brent and Gasoil hit new 1.5-month highs consolidating on these levels in the afternoon whilst market players were waiting for the DOE's data on US oil inventories. The DOE's report showed massive builds in crude oil stockpiles and a less than expected draw in gasoline stocks. Even though it was clearly bearish it had no immediate impact on oil prices. Brent and WTI only declined in the course of the evening, with the spread between the two crude oil sorts widening to more than 6 USD. Since events in the Ukraine are currently predominating the market, Gasoil stayed close to its 1.5 month high, hardly affected by the light profit taking.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 925.25 USD on Wednesday. This was +7.50 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 59,700 deals, the traded volume of the front month was slightly above average.

Yesterday afternoon, the stochastic indicator gave a buying signal at the Gasoil and the Brent chart after the black line had surpassed the red line. Meanwhile, the indicator has turned bearish again at the Brent chart, with the red line having exceeded the black one. At the Gasoil chart, the indicator is still neutral. The formal selling signal at the Brent chart might prompt investors to take more profits from the European crude oil sort. However, Brent is still moving within its steep uptrend. The selling signal hasn't been confirmed so far, neither by the RSI, that is still hovering above 70%, nor by the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart. Given the bearish signal of the stochastic indicator at the Brent chart, we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bearish. The decline of oil futures will only accelerate, though, if there is another confirming selling signal.

U.S.

Nymex slightly above average: Futures at ICE have seen some profit taking in electronic trading this morning after WTI had already lost ground yesterday evening after the release of the DOE's data. However, losses are limited against the backdrop of the meeting of Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the USA in Geneva today. Moreover, investors stay cautious ahead of the prolonged weekend. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly above average for this time of day. Investors are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets. They will also keep an eye on today's economic indicators, the situation in Libya and in Ukraine and the results of the meeting in Geneva.

API: Crude oil +7.6; Distillates -1.1; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +10.0; Distillates -1.3; Gasoline -0.2 million barrels vs previous week.
Forecasts: Crude oil +1.5; Distillates +0.0; Gasoline -1.8 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-4)
380cst $601
180cst $684
MGO $987

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-4)
380cst $621
180cst $678
MGO $988

Singapore (delivered indications 17-4)

WTI is slightly lower with -$0.63. Singapore paper dropped with with -$4.05 for 180cst and -$4.25 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst -$3.90 and 380cst -$3.35 with MGO contracts being bearish May -$0.05 and Jun x$0.00. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst -$0.30, 380cst +$0.75 and MGO +$0.90.

380cst $594
180cst $608
MGO $930

Fujairah (delivered indications 17-4)

380cst $605
180cst $640
MGO $982

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $580
(1.0 %) : $634
180cst: $620
MGO 0.1%S: $894