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ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 894,00 USD on Monday. This was -8,75 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 48,300 deals, the traded volume of the front month was below average.

The stochastic indicator gave a selling signal at ICE charts as well as at the WTI chart this morning as its lines crossed. This leads to expect that there will be some technical profit taking and tests of the downward potential. So far, the short-term uptrends at ICE and NYMEX are still intact, however. Therefore, we assess the technical situation as neutral to bearish at the moment. If oil futures break below their trends and if the RSI drops below 70% at the Brent and the WTI chart, there would be new technical selling cues. In this case, the technical constellation would turn clearly bearish.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: Oil futures stayed within a relatively narrow range in electronic trading this morning as the economic data out of China didn't provide any clear cues and market players were still waiting to see whether the tensions between Russia and the West might ease and whether there is some progress in Libya, where insurgents indicated that there might be an accord with the government and a recommissioning of the blocked oil export terminals. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the development at stock and forex markets waiting for the few economic data due today.

Forecasts: Crude oil +2.5; Distillates -0.7; Gasoline -2.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 1-4)
380cst $597
180cst $693
MGO $1000

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 1-4)
380cst $630
180cst $670
MGO $994

Singapore (delivered indications 1-4)

WTI is neutral with +$0.00. Singapore paper is bearish with -$1.50 for 180cst and -$1.50 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$1.25 and 380cst -$0.80 with MGO contracts being bearish Apr -$0.28 and May -$0.26. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$1.39, 380cst +$1.19 and MGO -$0.60.

The Singapore fuel oil prices fell between $2.5 and $1.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market fundamentals are looking weak on ample supply amidst a sluggish demand. The delivered bunker premiums softened to around $2.0 to $4.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $598
180cst $618
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 1-4)

380cst $608
180cst $642
MGO $983

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $582
(1.0 %) : $646
180cst: $622
MGO 0.1%S: $866