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Crude oil prices dipped in early Asian trade on Monday, but remains supported as investors continue watching developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict amid concerns over a disruption to supplies.

The trading scheme at oil markets in London and New York on Friday resembled that of the week before. Investors avoided short risks fearing that the situation in Crimea might renewedly escalate and so there was strategic buying ahead of the weekend. By raising their strategic long positions, market players wanted to hedge a rise in the geopolitical risk premium. The stochastic indicator generated a buying signal at the Brent and the Gasoil chart and oil futures exceeded their downtrends (like they had done the week before). Futures remained steady until the evening, even though some analysts, like those at Commerzbank, actually said that there was no more short-term upward potential. Investors already took some profits from their speculative long positions in late Friday-evening trading and so quotations pulled back from their highs before the end of the session. Still, oil futures in all, marked considerable gains ahead of the weekend.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 900.50 USD on Friday. This was +11.75 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 51,900 deals, the traded volume of the front month was on average.

When the lines of the stochastic indicator crossed at ICE charts on Friday, buying signals were generated which bolstered quotations. Oil futures' rise in Friday afternoon trading is likely to have spent most of the bullish impact, however. This morning the stocastic indicator is bearish at the WTI chart giving a selling signal. After Brent and Gasoil had briefly exceeded their downtrends, the contracts re-entered these downtrends last week as traders cut the strategic long positions they had opened the week before. Some factors are suggesting that this will be the case this week as well. Technically, this will depend on whether Brent and Gasoil drop below the upper limits of their former downtrends again, that is the 892.00 USD-marker for Gasoil and the 106.45 USD-marker at the Brent chart. In this case, the downtrends would renewedly be confirmed allowing for technical profit taking. As long as these key-supports remain strong, though, we assess the technical situation as neutral against the backdrop of the slightly bullish stochastic indicator at the Brent chart and the selling signal at the WTI chart.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: The disappointing Chinese purchasing manager index released by HSBC early this morning and the fact that investors took profits from the strategic long positions they had raised ahead of the weekend caused a slight decline in oil futures in electronic trading this morning, the more so as the stochastic indicator is bearish at the WTI chart. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Market players are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets looking ahead to today's economic data and keeping an eye on the development of the situation in the Ukraine.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 24-3)
380cst $589
180cst $667
MGO $994

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 24-3)
380cst $634
180cst $678
MGO $990

Singapore (delivered indications 24-3)

WTI is bullish with +$0.57. Singapore paper is bearish with -$0.50 for 180cst and -$1.50 for 380cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$1.20 and 380cst -$1.60 with MGO contracts being bearish Apr +$0.05 and May +$0.04. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$1.76, 380cst +$3.58 and MGO +$1.03.

The Singapore fuel oil prices strengthened during the Asian Platts window last Friday and were assessed some $1.5-3.0/mt higher. There have been large volumes of incoming cargo over the last two months however the lack of blending materials continues to support the physical 180cst cargoes value. It was also reflected in the strong cargo premiums that were seen around $5.0 above cargo prices last Friday.

380cst $604
180cst $615
MGO $915

Fujairah (delivered indications 24-3)

380cst $607
180cst $640
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $578
(1.0 %) : $658
180cst: $618
MGO 0.1%S: $858