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U.S. oil futures traded near a three-week low on this morning, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Oil prices already kept track of Tuesday's losses on Wednesday morning when oil markets saw some profit taking. Investors cut the geopolitical risk premium after tensions in the Ukraine, resp. on the Crimean peninsula, had slightly eased and Russia's president had made some deescalating remarks. The situation didn't renewedly exacerbate on Wednesday and so supply disruptions in the energy sector are considered unlikely. The technical constellation turned bearish in the course of the day as the stochastic indicator at the ICE charts confirmed the selling signal at the WTI chart. The disappointing data regarding the ADP's labor market report and the ISM's purchasing manager index for the USA also weighed on sentiment. However, investors on oil markets were also waiting for the DOE's data on US oil stocks. The DOE's report showed surprise builds in distillate stocks as well as a decline in demand heralding the end of the winter season resp. winter demand. Pressure on futures continued rising and so quotations extended their losses in late trade. Brent and Gasoil hit a new 4-week-low settling near these levels. The Beige Book released by the US Fed after our submission deadline didn't give markets any new direction.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 911.75 USD on Wednesday. This was -7.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 57,400 deals, the traded volume was on average.

The stochastic indicator at the ICE charts confirmed the selling signal at the WTI chart yesterday. This morning, it is still bearish. Against the backdrop of the situation in Ukraine futures at ICE tried to break above their downtrend but failed to do so sustainably. Therefore, ICE futures have returned to these trend channels. The selling signals of the stochastic indicator has probably already been priced in during the decline oil futures have seen over the past few days. Thus oil futures should retreat at a slower pace now. Moreover, there might be some short covering within the boundaries of the trend channel. From a merely technical point of view, we still assess the situation as neutral to bearish. If futures sustainably fall below yesterday's lows, however, the decline should renewedly accelerate.

U.S.

Nymex cooling: Futures at ICE and NYMEX slightly pulled back from yesterday's lows this morning. However, the rise has been limited so far by first resistances. The traded volume at NYMEX is on average for this time of day. Traders are now monitoring the development at stock and forex markets waiting for today's economic data and the development of the situation in the Ukraine.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.2; Distillates -1.0; Gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +1.2; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline -1.2 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +1.4; Distillates +1.4; Gasoline -1.6 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 6-3)
380cst $610
180cst $683
MGO $1012

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 6-3)
380cst $649
180cst $682
MGO $1025

Singapore (delivered indications 6-3)

WTI is bearish with -$2.13. Singapore paper is bearish with -$1.00 for 180cst and -$1.00 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$2.25 and 380cst $3.25 with MGO contracts being bearish Mar -$1.46 and Apr -$1.58. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$7.42, 380cst -$5.82 and MGO -$0.45.

Singapore bunker fuel oil markets dropped app. $5.5-6.0/mt during Asian Platts window yesterday. Cash premiums flipped back to $0,5/mt after trading at a discount the last couple of days. Suppliers in the area reported average demand and good product avails.

380cst $605
180cst $615
MGO $935

Fujairah (delivered indications 5-3)

380cst0 $605
180cst $635
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

A lot of 380 LSFO avails problems in whole of ARA. Most of the suppliers are only able to offer from 9th onwards.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $579
(1.0 %) : $648
180cst: $609
MGO 0.1%S: $880