Fri 15 Nov 2013, 11:32 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



U.S. crude edged above $94 a barrel on Friday on expectations the Federal Reserve would persist with its loose monetary policy for now. But the contract remained on course for its sixth weekly drop due to a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. inventories. Janet Yellen, likely to be the next Fed chief, on Thursday defended the U.S. central bank's commodity-friendly stimulus measures, suggesting that immediate tapering would not be on the table if she takes up the job. U.S. crude for December delivery was 31 cents higher at $94.07 per barrel at 0034 GMT, after settling 12 cents lower on Thursday.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 908.75 USD on Thursday. This was 7.50 USD above Wednesday's settlement. With some 34,000 deals, the traded volume was well below average. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX were consolidating Thursday until the afternoon while market players were waiting for the DoE data on U.S. oil inventories. Spread bets continued to impact trading again again in the early afternoon, helping ICE prices to slightly advance, whereas WTI was rather edging lower. The reason is an extremely oversupplied U.S. market whilst product stocks are relatively scarce at the beginning of winter seasosn and supply of low-sulfur crude in Europe may remain hampered for the next months due to the problems in Libya. Although Yellen's speech before Congress did not reveal anything new as the basic points had already been laid down in the written statement Wednesday evening, the fact that the Fed is to stick to its ultra-losse monetary policy bolstered oil prices yesterday. At first glance, the DoE's inventory data looked bearish, but given that oil demand stood at over 20 mbpd for the third straight week actually supported the oil market. Thus, the bearish effect of higher crude stockpiles and dropping demand for gasoline and distillates was only temporarily notieable. In the end, oil futures considerably corrected upwards in view of Yellen's speech and higher oil demand.

The Stochastic has given off a buying signal for WTI after its both lines crossed. For ICE futures, the indicator is not yet providing any fresh signals. Its lines are diverging at the G.Oil chart, however, which means the indicator is at least slightly bullish here. Thus, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bullish this morning. But the bullish potential may be reduced after yesterday's price jump and so close to the weekend. If oil prices managed to breach yesterday's highs, profit taking from long positions migh dominate market development in the afternoon.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil prices have been consolidating at a high level after the DoE's inventory data but remain below yesterday's highs. The trade NYMEX volume is about average for this time of day. Market players anticipate the opening of European markets, the movements of the euro and the release of some economic indicators, the most observed today will be the government's official employment report.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 15-11)
380cst $593
180cst $661
MGO $984

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 15-11)
380cst $593
180cst $644
MGO $987

Singapore

Crude is neutral, gaining with WTI +$0.18. Singapore paper is bullish with +$6.00 for 180cst and +$6.00 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst +$4.25 and 380cst +$4.00 with MGO contracts Nov +$1.00 and Dec +$0.85. The cargo market is bullish with 180 cst +$1.81 380cst +$2.50 and MGO +$1.09.

380cst $596
180cst $603
MGO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 15-11)

380cst $614
180cst $661
MGO $990

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $575
(1.0 %) :$595
180cst: $605
(1.0 %):$ 625
MGO 0.1%S: $ 987

BP   MGO  

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