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Crude oil trade was subdued in this morning, as much of Europe was closed for All Saints' Day, ahead of important data next week that could provide the oversupplied market with fresh direction.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 932.50 USD on Thursday. This was 4.75 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 46,400 deals, the traded volume was below average.

After their rise Tuesday night and Wednesday ICE futures consolidated on a high level on Thursday, trying their upward potential in the process. But when the gasoil resistance at 939,00 dollars and Brent resistance at 110,00 dollars proved strong market participants took profit from spread bets accumulated this week in a reaction to the strong US crude stock build, pushing prices below their support lines. As the WTI consolidated in a narrow margin at its low level throughout the session the spread between the two benchmarks narrowed from more than 13 dollars Thursday morning to around 12,70 dollars today. High US crude stocks (as per the DoE on Wednesday) and a bearish technical constellation favoured the downside so that futures at both ICE and NYMEX settled lower in the end.

OPEC: In its most recent report the EIA said OPEC oil production fell in October to around 29,7 mbpd because of continuing strikes and unrest in Libya where crude production at several oil fields has to be interrupted repeatedly. Output is thus about 1.0 mbpd below year ago figures and 0.1 mbpd below the September level. Apart from that Saudi Arabia reduced production by about 0,3 mbpd to 9.8 mbpd, increasing its spare capacity to 2,0 mbpd in October from 1,7 mbpd a month earlier. Word is that Iran has increased output by around 0.1 mbpd to 2.8 mbpd. These figures originate from a report the EIA releases every other month in order to monitor the efficacy and the consequences of the Western sanctions against Iran. Its next official monthly energy report is presumably being released on November 12th.

The Stochastic gave a selling signal at the WTI chart yesterday, leaving the indicator bearish this morning. But given the current special condition the WTI is in we exclude the contract from our consideration today. At the ICE charts the Stochastic is still seen neutral, its two lines converging and even touching as for the Brent. Yesterday's liquidations of spread bets might have distorted the signals that the indicator is giving but should its two lines cross during the day a technical selling signal should nevertheless be triggered. Even though there is some potential for a downward correction we regard the technical constellation as neutral as long as there are no selling signals triggered at the ICE charts.

U.S.

Nymex bearish: Oil prices are rising at ICE and NYMEX this morning, supported mainly by a couple of encouraging Chinese indicators. The traded NYMEX volume is somewhat below average for this time of day. Market players anticipate the opening of European markets and the performance of the dollar as well as a couple of US indicators in the afternoon.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 31-10)
380cst $603
180cst $664
MGO $992

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 31-10)
380cst $610
180cst $655
MGO $995

Singapore

380cst $606
180cst $615
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 1-11)

380cst $610
180cst $673
MGO $1000

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $588
(1.0 %) :$607
180cst: $615
(1.0 %):$ 634
MGO 0.1%S: $ 905