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Crude-oil futures Thursday fell back from the multi-month highs reached in the previous session, with some profits being banked as a day of stalled diplomacy suggested any military strikes on Syria could be delayed. The market may be correcting after a sharp reaction to potential international intervention in Syria, said analysts at JBC Energy. The West Texas Intermediate contract closed at $110.10 yesterday, the highest settlement price in more than two years; Brent settled at a six-month high above $116 a barrel. Thursday, Brent crude for October delivery was down $1.04, or 0.9%, at $115.57 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were down 97 cents, or 0.9%, at $109.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil prices had already climbed up in early Wednesday trading, extending their gains made the day before. Market development was still dominated by the situation surrounding the Syrian conflict, although at this point, there was no news on the current state of plans regarding a military intervention by the USA. Thus, traders seized the high price level to take profits from speculative long positions that had been place the previous day. Wednesday’s high, which was hit early on, formed the upper limitation of the technical trading range. Without fresh news out of Syria, oil futures consolidated in between their first support and resistance throughout the day. In the afternoon, the DoE data was released with a slightly bearish tone, but failed to make a noticeable impact on the oil market. In the end, oil prices consolidated at a high level since the prospect of a military strike on Syria by the USA prevented more profit-taking and was long as the conflict does not escalade, there is no need to raise the risk premium.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 970.00 USD on Wednesday. This was ±0,00 USD comapred to Tuesday's settlement. With some 54,600 deals the traded volume was about average. The Stochastic is no longer bullish for NYMEX and ICE futures. If the indicator’s lines crossed in the course of the day, it would favour a technical downward correction. Moreover, the RSI still moves in overbought territory and stays above the 70%-line. If the indicator fell below this line, it would trigger a selling signal. But as long as no clear selling signals have been triggered, we assume a neutral stance in terms of the technical constellation.

U.S.

Nymex gaining: Oil futures have been trading sideways Thursday morning, consolidating within their technical range in early Asian trading this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is about average for this time of day. Market players are now waiting for European markets to open, for new signals from forex trading and the developments in the Middle East as well as for some economic data.

Survey: Crude oil +0,7; distillates +0,5; gasoline -1,3 vs million barrels previous week.
API: Crude oil +2.5; distillates unchanged; gasoline -1.1 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +0,3; distillates -0,3; gasoline -0,6 vs million barrels previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28-08)
380cst $631
180cst $702
MGO $1035

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 28-08)
380cst $632
180cst $682
MGO $1037

Singapore

Crude is bearish with WTI -$0.82. Singapore paper is bullish still with +$3.50 for 180cst and +$3.00 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$3.25 and 380cst +$3.35 with MGO contracts Sep -$0.62 and Oct -$0.57. The cargo market is tracking crude and paper with 180cst +$13.06, 380cst +$10.52 and MGO +$3.85.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up more than +$10.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday on massive surge in crude values. The delivered bunker premiums turned negative, ranging at -$1.25 to +$0.5 above cargo prices as demand was impacted by the spike in outright bunker prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained up to $5.5/mt at the front of the forward curve for Singapore papers. Backend was weaker with Cal14 papers up by only some $2.5-3.0/mt and Cal15 unchanged. Visco spread gained some strength on spot and was trading at $4.5/mt yesterday. September was seen at $5.75 while forward prices remained stable trading in a range of $7.0-7.75/mt for the rest of the year. This morning the markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $620
180cst $626
MGO $950

Fujairah (delivered indications 29-08)

380cst $622
180cst $681
MGO $1015

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Due to the availability problems with hsfo ( long waiting time at refineries, only contracts with some ex wharf suppliers, less spot available at higher premiums) the spread between hsfo and lsfo is minimum. In September ESSO Antwerp will have even more avail problems as they are working on maintenance of their refinery. Because of this, local Antwerp suppliers will need to buy more product in Rotterdam, therefor long waitinglines at Rotterdam refineries and storage are to be expected, with premiums on price as a result.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $607
(1.0 %) :$628
180cst: $637
(1.0 %):$ 658
MGO 0.1%S: $ 950