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Crude oil futures swung between small gains and losses on Tuesday, amid concerns that the U.S. could be growing closer to taking possible military action against Syria’s government. Investors also looked ahead to the release of key U.S. weekly supply data to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at USD105.96 a barrel during European morning trade, little changed. The October contract settled down 0.5% at USD105.92 a barrel on Monday. Nymex oil futures held in a range between USD105.90 a barrel, the session low and a daily high of USD106.59 a barrel. Oil futures were likely to find support at USD104.32 a barrel, the low from August 23 and resistance at USD107.31 a barrel, the high from August 25.

Growing speculation that the U.S. and other Western nations will intervene in Syria continued to prop up oil prices in wake of allegations Bashar al-Assad’s government forces used chemical weaponry against civilians. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Monday that President Obama will hold Syria’s government accountable for using chemical weapons. While Syria is not a major oil producer, investors fear that the two-year-old civil war could spill over to affect oil supplies in nearby countries. Market players are also concerned about the involvement of Iran, OPEC’s sixth-biggest oil producer. Oil futures in London and New York started softer Monday morning. After oil prices had surged in late trade on Friday, market players seized the high price level to take some profits in the first half of the European session. But as expected, the trade volume remained very thin as many London-based traders were enjoying the British Summer Bank Holiday. Along with the weaker euro, which favoured profit-taking, oil futures slid below their first supports. In the afternoon, selling pressure increased when it was confirmed that oil exports from the Libyan terminal Begra had been resumed and that the port was running at full capacity again (90,000 bpd). The worse-than-expected data on durable goods orders in the USA hardly weighed on the oil market since the common currency received a strong boost and this way prevented oil prices from falling. As guiding market news were lacking, trading remained quite volatile. In view of the profit-taking seen during morning trade as well as in the afternoon, oil prices consolidated at a low level for the rest of Monday’s session and were not able to evolve in either direction.

ICE Gasoil contract for September delivery settled at 940.25 USD on Monday. This was 1.50 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 23,800 deals the traded volume was far below average.
The Stochastic remains slightly bullish at all charts. The RSI has slipped below the 70%-line at the G.Oil chart and thus has turned bearish. However, Brent’s still lacking a selling signal as the RSI still hovers above the trigger line. In view of the contradictory signals, we assume a neutral stance for the time being. If the RSI fell below the 70%-line at the Brent chart, technical selling pressure would increase and favour profit-taking.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil markets have not shown any clear direction yet this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Market players are now eying the performance of European markets, new clues from forex trading as well as the situation in the Middle East and some economic data. In the evening, the API will release its weekly inventory data.

API: due out tonight

Survey: Crude oil +0,7; distillates +0,5; gasoline -1,3 vs million barrels previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 26-08)
380cst $602
180cst $673
MGO $1015

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 26-08)
380cst $606
180cst $656
MGO $1017

Singapore

Crude is slighty bearish, with WTI -$0.12. Singapore paper is gaining slightly with +$1.00 for 180cst and +$0.30 for 380cst for Sep, and for Oct 180 cst +$0.75 and 380cst +$0.05 with MGO contracts Sep -$0.02 and Oct -$0.02. The cargo market is mixed with 180cst -$2.85, 380cst -$3.11 and MGO +$0.26.

The Singapore fuel oil markets closed around parity, ranging between -$0.5 to $0.5 during the Asian Platts window last Friday. The Singapore heavy residual stockpile saw a slight decline of -0.32 mbbl to 20.67 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were weak at +$1.5 to $2.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swap prices gained $1.0- 2.0/mt along the curve for 3.5% Rtdam FOB barges and Sing180 cst papers. Visco spread remains weak with September trading at app. $3/mt and cal14 at app.$7.5/mt. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

380cst $607
180cst $611
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 27-08)

380cst $609
180cst $665
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Due to the availability problems with hsfo ( long waiting time at refineries, only contracts with some ex wharf suppliers, less spot available at higher premiums) the spread between hsfo and lsfo is minimum. In September ESSO Antwerp will have even more avail problems as they are working on maintenance of their refinery. Because of this, local Antwerp suppliers will need to buy more product in Rotterdam, therefor long waitinglines at Rotterdam refineries and storage are to be expected, with premiums on price as a result.

LSFO can be a problem in Antwerp at the moment. The largest storage of total does not have enough product at the moment. This should be solved by end of this week.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $596
(1.0 %) :$618
180cst: $626
(1.0 %):$ 648
MGO 0.1%S: $ 913