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The price of crude fell slightly to near $94 per barrel Tuesday after Japan released lukewarm manufacturing data. Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 13 cents to $94.37 per barrel at late afternoon Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.50 to finish at $94.50 a barrel in New York. Oil hadn't finished above $94 since April 10. Data released by the Japanese government showed a slight uptick in monthly factory production. But the improvement was not as solid as analysts had expected. Robust U.S. energy production was also keeping oil prices in check, analysts said. Brent crude, which is used to set prices of oil from the North Sea used by many U.S. refiners, fell 33 cents to $103.48 on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

After slightly slipping in early Asian trading on Monday, oil futures started to pick up steam in the wake of a strong euro and the good performance of stock markets at the opening of European trade, surging above their first resistance. Only G.Oil’s strong resistance at 858.75 USD limited oil’s upside and caused oil prices to drop back. Crude contracts, however, managed to hold steady at their high level, consolidating between their first and second resistance in the afternoon before eventually breaching further resistances after the release of better-than-expected data on the U.S. housing market. Given the lack of fundamental news to give direction, market players were mainly guided by the euro and stock markets and engaged in long positions. WTI gained a solid 1.6%, reaching a two-week high at 94.69 USD. Brent had also performed well and settled at its day’s high. Merely G.Oil at ICE had to cede some gains in the evening and consolidated within its trading range as the contract failed to breach its resistance at 860.00 USD.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 857.50 USD on Monday. This was 1.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 45,900 deals, the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic’s lines are converging in the overbought zone at the Brent and WTI chart and thus, the indicator still is neutral this morning. If its lines crossed, a selling signal would be triggered which, in turn, would reinforce the overbought market situation. The Stochastic oscillator remains bearish at the G.Oil chart where the RSI is also indicating an overbought market. The short-term uptrend still leaves sufficient scope for the oil market to trade in either direction. Thus, we consider the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: Oil futures at ICE are edging lower in thin Asian trade this morning due to a holiday in China. WTI, however, is trading hardly changed in a narrow range. Traders attribute this to the profits taken in the course of yesterday’s late surge. Still, upward potential was limited as traders are already eying central banks, hoping for the Fed and the ECB to take further monetary measures. Trade volume at NYMEX is far below average for this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European markets to open, for fresh signals from forex trading as well as for a series of economic data to be released in the USA and the euro zone, which are to provide further cues on the state of the economy.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-04 )
380cst $590
180cst $643
MGO $977

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-04)
380cst $605
180cst $651
MGO $979

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bullish with +$1.45. The paper market is following, with May 180cst +$3.25 and for 380cst +$2.25, and June contracts with 180cst +$2.75, 380st +$1.45 The cargo market is bullish, with 180cst +$1.26, and 380cst +$0.51 and MGO +$0.84.

The Singapore fuel oil markets remained largely flat; ranging between -$0.5 to +$1.5 during the Platts window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums were heard to be $6.0-8.0 above cargo prices. The Singapore market is closed tomorrow on Labor Day holiday and reopens on Thursday. This morning the markets are trading slightly higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $612
180 cst $618
MGO $860

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-04)

380cst $619
180cst $683
MGO $1075

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $590
(1.0 %) :$ 599
180cst: $ 620
(1.0 %):$ 629
MGO 0.1%S: $ 844