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Oil futures started range bound this week, trading in a narrow range within their first resistances and supports. Prior to the release of the important U.S. job market figures this week as well as the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday, investors are somewhat reserved. ICE futures tested their first supports early on but without success. Only at the opening of NYMEX floor trade did the market receive momentum. When first resistances had proved to be strong, traders locked in sizable profits at this level. After first supports were breached, more technical selling orders were triggered. Lacking fundamental signals (there were hardly any economic data on the agenda either), a bearish sentiment dominated the market and WTI fell below 90.00 USD for the first time this year. NYMEX crude closed at a two-month low and ICE futures had also incurred some losses at close of floor trading. Only in the evening, oil prices could compensate part of their losses in the wake of the rising euro, see tickcharts. The Chinese PMI released last night had no direct impact on the oil market. ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 919.00 USD on Monday. This was -1.50 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 38,700 deals the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic’s lines have crossed at the Brent chart, triggering a small buying signal. The stochastic oscillator at the WTi chart has changed direction and would also give off a buying signal if its lines crossed. However, the indicator is still neutral for WTI as well as G.Oil at the moment, see also technical analysis. Both Brent and WTI have fallen below Friday’s lows and slipped below the support lines of its short-term downtrend. ICE G.Oil even breached its long-term support at 917.25 USD. However, the market is still strongly overbought. Thus we regard the technical constellation as neutral this morning, not least because traders may focus on fundamentals this week.

After last week's losses the euro moved along the 1.30 USD-marker in a calm trade on Monday. Slightly better than anticipated data regarding producer prices in the EU had but little effect on the currency and there were no other decisive indicators on the agenda. In the face of the yet uncertain political situation in Italy, investors at forex markets remain cautious. There are still no signs that a government is formed. Nevertheless, given the recently released positive economic data out of the USA, there has been a slight regain of optimism lately. According to analysts, traders now look ahead to the ECB's decision on its benchmark interest rate (Thursday). Experts presume that it has become more likely that the central bank will cut its interest rate. Even though a prompt rate cut is not expected, it was just a matter of time until the ECB will act, they noted. The more so, as the further outlook is not quite positive. As to the data on economic growth in the euro zone, which are due this week, economists expect the GDP to have declined by -0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

During the meeting of the Eurogroup in Brussels yesterday, the euro zone's Finance ministers have granted Cyprus's newly elected government a package of financial aids, to be decided upon until the end of March. Ireland and Portugal will need more patience. These two countries also hope for more financial aids from their European partners. The Yen was stronger against the euro and the dollar in Asian trading this morning as it was buoyed by some technical buying. Meanwhile, the 17-nation currency has climbed above its resistance at 1.3045 USD as European economic indicators slightly exceeded expectations (PMIs of the service sector in the eurozone and Germany). This morning, neither the RSI nor the stochastic indicator provide new cues. The euro's February downward tendency is still intact. The common currency last sold at 1.3069 USD. Supports are at 1,3020 USD, at 1,2995 USD, at 1,2980 USD, at 1,2965 USD and at 1,2930 USD. Resistances are at 1,3045 USD, at 1,3090 USD, at 1,31 USD and at 1,3165 USD.

U.S.

After yesterday's losses in late trading, oil futures have slightly been edging higher during Asian trading this morning. Confident statements made by China’s prime minister Wen Jiabao on the country’s economic growth as well as the prospect of declined U.S. oil inventories supports the market in early trading. Brent is up due to the closure of its pipeline system in the North Sea.

Trade volume at NYMEX is about average for this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European market to open, for fresh signals from forex trading and for a series of economic data to be released in Europe and the USA, see economic calendar. Investors will also focus on U.S. job market figures this week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 05-03)
380cst $609
180cst $647
MGO $1003

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 05-03)
380cst $609
180cst $641
MGO $1002

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI has climbed slightly gaining $0.20. Paper for Mar is mirroring the gains with 180cst +$5.75 and for 380cst +$6.25, and Apr contracts with 180cst +$5.00, 380st +$4.80. The cargo market is losing sharply with 180cst -$2.69, 380cst -$3.31 and MGO -$1.36.

In Singapore, demand on the delivered front was “normal” said sellers, maintaining similar levels of demand volumes from last Friday. On the ex-wharf 380 CST front, demand was slow to start but improved during MOC. Bids were initially heard at $626/mt and went up to $628/mt. Offers were between $628/mt and 630/mt. Trades were initially heard at $627/mt and eventually rose to $628-629.50/mt. The ex-wharf 380 CST was assessed at $628/mt, down $3.50/mt from Friday. For the ex-wharf 500 CST, offers were between $617/mt and $621/mt. The ex-wharf 500 CST was assessed $618.50/mt, down $2/mt from Friday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $623
180 cst $629
MGO $920

Fujairah (delivered indications 05-03)

380cst $630
180cst $680
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Northwest European bunker fuel values moved downward tracking changes in the crude oil complex and weak global equity markets that put further pressure on fuel oil prices. Demand was average at the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg, sources said. Both fuel oil specs are long on the market but barges are still tight for LSFO prompt deliveries. The price range for LSFO was heard at $627-639/mt from suppliers in Rotterdam. However, prompt deliveries could not be offered until March 7-8, some suppliers said. Premiums for delivered 380 low sulfur fuel oil moved higher Monday, one bunker trader said, as the issue was exacerbated because of loading problems at Vopak.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 604
(1.0 %) :$ 635
180cst: $ 634
(1.0 %):$ 665
MGO 0.1%S: $ 910