Tue 19 Jun 2012, 12:37 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



This morning the oil prices respond to the technical constellation, providing some bearish signals, with the euro retreated as well. Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have fallen through their first supports. The ICE Brent has marked a new long-time low at 94.44 dollars, whereas the 82.30 dollar support for the WTI crude has proved strong up to now.

Thanks to the elections in Greece where the pro-bailout New Democracy party secured a narrow win, oil futures began the day in positive territory on Monday. But optimism soon vanished and market participants took profit after Spain's borrowing costs spiked to euro-era highs on worries over its banks. Spain's bond yields rose to 7.3 percent, undermining Madrid's ability to finance itself less than two weeks after the EU decided to lend it 100 billion euro to boost its lenders. In the wake of the ailing euro oil prices fell through their first support lines at midday, triggering a string of technical selling orders. During the session in New York the Brent fell to a low of 95.38, its lowest level in 17 months, paving the way for a continued downward correction. When the dollar's slide was stopped short above its 1,2570 dollar support, oil prices stabilized around 95.00 dollars in London and 82.00 dollars in New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 841.50 dollars on Monday. This was 10.00 dollars below Friday's settlement. With some 57,300 contracts the traded volume was about on average.

Both the Stochastic and the RSI indicator are (still) neutral at the ICE charts while the two lines of the Stochastic oscillator have crossed for the WTI, giving market players a selling signal. Should the brent drop below Monday's lows and the Stochastic oscillator's lines cross at the ICE, technical analysts epxect the WTI to hit its eight month low achieved last week.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures are little changed versus the previous day's settlement in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, trading in a narrow range with a bearish tone. The traded volume is well below average. Market players eye the G20 meeting and the outcome of the nuclear discussions with Iran. A few economic indicators from the U.S. and the eurozone are on the agenda today.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Wednesday at 16:30(DOE)

Crude oil -1.0; distillates +1.4; gasoline +1.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-6)

380cst $581
180cst $612
MGO $890

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-6)

380cst $588
180cst $628
MGO $885

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining bearish momentum, losing with WTI -$1.38. Singapore paper is turning as well with -$22.05 for 180cst and -$21.30 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$22.00 and 380cst -$21.25 with MGO contracts Jul -$2.25 and Aug -$2.27. The cargo market is turning bearish as well with 180cst -$6.76, 380cst -$5.86 and MGO -$0.30.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell more than $5.75 during the morning window yesterday as crude softened. There was more selling pressure, weakening the Asian crack spread. The delivered bunker premiums inched up around $7.25 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost nearly $12.5/mt at the front of the forward curve. Backend was a few dollars stronger. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $590
180 cst $600
MGO $820

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The avail constraints continue to underpin both hsfo and lsfo levels, despite falling crude prices. Not much relief is expected within the next couple of weeks, with continuing loading delays.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 560
(1.0 %) :$ 593
180cst: $ 584
(1.0 %):$ 616
MGO 0.1%S: $835

MGO  

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