Mon 26 Sep 2011, 13:30 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil European equity markets opened slightly higher this morning and the euro regained some ground lost vs the dollar in morning trading, giving oil prices a boost. The better-than-expected ifo indicator for Germanylifts market sentiment.

Taking their breath after Thursday's price collapse, oil futures consolidated in early Friday trading and snapped back towards middays investors covered some short positions, encouraged by a falling U.S. dollars. Yet the recovery didn't last long. When oil futures breached important support lines (80.00 dollars for the WTI, 105.00 dollars for the brent) following the rebound in the dollar, more technically driven selling orders heightened the selling pressure. Only the recovery of European and U.S.equity markets stopped the selloff and gave prices a lift. The crude contract at the NYMEX even pared most of its earlier losses to settle only a tad lower.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 899.00 dollars on Friday. This was 4.75 dollars below Thursday's settlement. With some 69,500 contracts the traded volume was slightly above average.

OPEC The debt problems in some countries in the European Union were a worry for oil producers, but the crude market was currently well-supplied, according to Quatar's oil minister Mohammed Saleh al-Sada. Both the performance of the global economy and the debt crisis in some European countries were playing a major role in the current oil prices, he said. But speculative money had a great influence on oil price development and so the cartel regards the latest price collapse as of temporary nature. OPEC was closely monitoring developments on supply and demand and the progress in Libya's oil output. According to OPEC secretary general Abdalla Salem el-Badri the extent of discussion on the cartel's output quota depends on the state of the Libyan oil recovery.

The Stochastic indicator remains bearish at the ICE charts while the one for the WTI doesn't give any clear signals. Even though markets are oversold, analysts do not see much room for an upward correction today as there seems to be no floor in prices after their breach through several technical supports over the last days. A significant drop below the 102.40 dollar support for the ICE would trigger a fresh wave of selling. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 77.00 dollars, its first resistance at 81.80 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 104.70 dollars, its first support is at 102.40 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing: Oil futures extend their losses in East Asiaand Globex electronic trade this morning, weighed down by a rising dollar and pessimistic economic outlook. The traded volume is well above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-9)

380cst $627
180cst $662
MGO $918

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-9)

380cst $629
180cst $665
MGO $921

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping with WTI -$2.82. Singapore paper is adopting the bearishness with -$19.00 for 180cst and -$18.60 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$19.00 and 380cst -$19.00 with MGO Oct contracts at -$3.51 and for Nov at -$3.49. The cargo market is bearish still, losing with 180cst -$5.01, 380cst -$5.17 and MGO -$0.51.

The Singapore fuel oil markets closed the week, losing more than $5.0 during the Platts window last Friday. The Singaporeheavy residual inventory reported a draw of -2.42 mbbl to 18.86 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were up to around $12.0/mt above cargo prices last Friday as sellers are not keen at the lower outright levels. Bunker fuel swaps lost 3 to 4dollars both for Rotterdam FOBBarges 3.5% and Singapore180-cst Cargo FOB. Prices were slightly stronger at the backend of the curve. Both markets are trading lower today.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $625
180 cst $635
MDO $902

Fujairah (delivered indications 26-9)

380cst $645
180cst $670
MGO $1050

Avails issue are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Bunker values in the Northwest European market continued to weaken Friday on slimmer demand that arose from another $1/barrel day-on-day fall in Brent crude. ICE Brent futures hit a six-week low in intraday trading Friday, reversing earlier gains in line with European equities amid ongoing fears over the global economy. In the MOC 1% 626 were the levels traded, with hs 603.25-606 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 607
(1.0 %) :$ 629
180cst: $ 632
(1.0 %):$ 654
MGO 0.1%S: $ 900

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