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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

After a short decline, oil prices are rising again during NYMEX session. The Middle East turmoil has pushed petrol to highs not seen since the global financial crisis in 2008, and economists say there could be more pain to come.

Oil prices slipped on Friday in volatile trade after crude exporter Libya declared a ceasefire with rebels, easing fears about possible damage to its energy facilities. A military coalition of the US, France, UK and other nations bombed tanks and anti-aircraft sites on Sunday and deterred Libyan fighter jets from flying. A missile strike on Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli destroyed a building which coalition officials said was a command centre.

Opec has revised its global economic growth upwards and says the world economy has continued to enjoy a “solid recovery” despite the social unrest in some parts of the Middle East and North Africa and the Japanese disaster. Opec increased its forecast for 2011 world economic growth by 0.1 per cent to 4 per cent in view of the healthy growth in the developing countries.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at 972.25 dollars Friday night. This was 2.00 dollars below Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 71,000 deals above average.

The Stochastic for Brent, Gasoil and WTI remain bullish for today, while the RSI is not giving a clear signal to the market. Oil prices are expected to rise and resistance lines will be tested, should those be breached, many buying orders will be triggered. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 101.00 dollars, the first resistance at 103.65 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 117.30 dollars, the first support is at 113.25 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining. Oil prices are rising sharply this morning following continued Western strikes on Colonel Gaddafi's military sites in Libya. oil surged in New York after the United Nations Security Council voted to ground Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's air force as continuing unrest in the region renewed concerns that the turmoil may spread and disrupt supply. Trade volume is well above average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-3)

380 cst $607
180 cst $628
MDO $974

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 18-3)

380 cst $609
180 cst $631
MDO $977

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning with WTI -$0.76 Singapore paper is mirroring it with -$9.25 for 180 cst and -$9.55 for 380 cst for Apr, and for May 180 cst -$9.45 and 380cst -$10.10 with MGO Apr contracts at -$1.75 and for May at -$ 1.72 The cargo market is now reacting to last weeks bullishness with 180cst +$20.17, 380cst +$19.15 and MGO +$3.68.

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended it losses by another $10.00- 6.00/mt during the Platts window yesterday. The volatile crude has market players moving into cautious territory causing the Asian Fuel Oil cracks to lose $3.00/bbl. The bunker delivered premiums were ranging at $8.00- 9.00 above cargo price yesterday. Bunker fuel swaps gained more than $7.00/mt along the curve both in Rotterdam and Singapore with gains slightly more pronounced at the backend. Both markets remain in backwardation with Cal 12 papers in Singapore being assessed at the discount of app. $20.00/mt compared to spot prices. Both markets are traded higher today.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $636
180 cst $649
MDO $995

Fujairah (delivered indications 21-3)

380cst: $635
180cst: $665
MGO: $980

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $603
(1.0%): $673
180cst: $629
(1.0%): $656 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $992