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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish immediate term / neutral medium term

Oil prices edge higher this afternoon, despite a stronger dollar. ICE gasoil breached first and second resistance line, the first resistances for the brent and the WTI crude are strong for the time being. Above these levels, more technical buying orders are expected.

Yesterday, oil prices pared earlier losses during NYMEX session and in after-hour trading after data showed US GDP grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter, adding to expectations that the DOE may show a draw in US crude stocks despite API's surprise build which had only little influence on oil prices last night.

An Iranian state energy firm has announced a major discovery of around 34 billion barrels in associated oil reserves at an offshore gas field in the Gulf, official media reported on Monday.

A huge oil layer has been found in coastal waters near the southern port city of Bushehr, said Ali Vakili, managing director of Pars Oil and Gas Co.

ICE gasoil December is expected to open 4.50 to 6.00 dollars higher at about 705.00 dollars/ton after settling at 699.75 dollars (official settlement price) Tuesday night. This was 1.00 dollar below Monday's settlement. Volume with some 60,300 deals above average.

WTI crude fell through 80.65 dollar support Tuesday as the dollar rose strongly vs the euro, but the decline was stopped just above 80.25 dollar support which eventually proved strong. RSI and Stochastic indicator still signal an oversold market but do not give any more bullish signals. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 80.25 dollars today, the first resistance at 81.90 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil prices pared earlier losses during NYMEX session and in after-hour trading after data showed US GDP grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter, adding to expectations that the DOE may show a draw in US crude stocks despite API's surprise build which had only little influence on oil prices last night.

APIs: crude oil +5.189; distillates -0.311, gasoline -0.499 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +2.1%

DOEs: due out tonight.

Forecasts: crude oil -1.8; distillates -1.5; gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: +0.2%.

Survey of US natural gas storage volumes according to EIA to be released one day earlier due to Thanksgiving Day in the USA at 18:00 hours for the week til November 19, 2010: -1,00 bcf (billion cubic feet) vs the previous week. Inventories would thus be 9.7% above the 5-year average and +1% vs year-ago figures.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 23-11)

380cst: $457
180cst: $480
MGO: $753

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 23-11)

380cst: $460
180cst: $483
MGO: $756

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is bouncing up slightly with WTI +$0.13. Singapore paper is mixed with 180cst +$2.90 and 380cst +$3.10 for Dec, and Jan 180 cst +$3.40 and 380cst +$2.70 with MGO Dec contracts -$0.07 and for Jan at -$0.05. The cargo market is not yet reacting with 180cst -$7.08, 380cst -$6.01 and MGO -$1.28.

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended its loss; dropping more than $6/mt over soft crude movement during the Platts window. The front intermonth time spreads continue to move into backwardation as market expects lesser incoming cargoes. The delivered bunker premiums came off; ranging $4.0 to $6.5 above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $478
180cst: $488
MGO: $714

Fujairah (delivered indications 24/11)

380cst: $480
180cst: $513
MGO: $740

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 50KT was traded between 447.50-449.00 with Petroned as the main seller to Litasco as the main buyer.

The NWE HSFO markets seem to be well supplied. Although the Eastern Arbitrage is considered to be at workable levels, no new VLCC fixutres have been reported yet. The Singaporean markets are seen 60 cents in normal backwardation. The HSFO Med markets are oversupplied and sluggish, with cargoes to NWE starting to become more attractive. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The NWE LSFO markets are well supplied, with expected stored product entering the market before year ending.

380cst: $456
(1.0%): $472
180cst: $471
(1.0%): $488
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $709