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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

Oil prices are rising, rebounding from its biggest weekly loss in three months, on optimism an agreement to rescue Ireland’s banks will prevent Europe’s debt woes from sapping economic growth.

Oil prices kept loosing ground in late NYMEX session and after-hour trading last night as most Asian stock markets fell and the dollar gained ground amid fears Ireland's debt crisis will spread to other financially weak European countries. Investors often look to stock markets as a gauge of overall investor sentiment while a stronger dollar makes crude more expensive for traders with other currencies.

An Iranian state energy firm has announced a major discovery of around 34 billion barrels in associated oil reserves at an offshore gas field in the Gulf, official media reported on Monday.

A huge oil layer has been found in coastal waters near the southern port city of Bushehr, said Ali Vakili, managing director of Pars Oil and Gas Co.

ICE gasoil December is expected to open 0.50 to 2.00 dollars higher at about 702.00 dollars/ton after settling at 700.75 dollars (official settlement price) Monday night. This was 4.75 dollars below Friday's settlement. Volume with some 63,000 deals above average.

The downtrend is still intact. RSI and Stochastic indicator still signal an oversold market but do not give any more bullish signals. The key support for the WTI crude at 80.65 dollars stopped the price collapse yesterday. 80.65 dollars are also the contract's first support today, first resistance is seen at 82.50 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil prices are losing ground in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, WTI crude trading near 81.00 dollars for a barrel, weighed down by a stronger dollar and weaker Asian equity markets. Japan's stock markets are closed today due to a holiday. No news in the markets. The traded volume is above average.

Survey of US petroleum inventories: API data will be released today at 22:30, DOE data Wednesday at 16:30.

crude oil -1.8; distillates -1.5; gasoline -1.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: +0.2%.

Even though analysts forecast another draw in US crude stocks and products, petroleum inventories are not so much an indicator for oil price development for the time being, given that refiners are traditionally reducing stocks towards the end of the year for fiscal reasons.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-11)

380cst: $457
180cst: $480
MGO: $753

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-11)

380cst: $460
180cst: $483
MGO: $756

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is gaining bearish momentum with WTI -$1.05. Singapore paper is mirroring it with 180cst -$6.26 and 380cst -$6.25 for Dec, and Jan 180 cst -$7.24 and 380cst -$7.49 with MGO Dec contracts -$1.29 and for Jan at -$1.28. The cargo market is in line with crude and paper with 180cst -$3.50, 380cst -$2.74 and MGO -$0.16.

The Singapore fuel oil markets fell only app. $2.5 on the start of the week tracking crude strength during the Platts window. The delivered bunker premiums continued to range between $6.0 to $8.0 above cargo prices yesterday as strong crude prices and also local tightness in supply supported the premium.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $476
180cst: $489
MGO: $714

Fujairah (delivered indications 23/11)

380cst: $478

180cst: $510

MGO: $735

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 82KT was traded between 448.50-449.50 with Petroned as the main seller to Litasco and Gunvor as the main buyers.

The NWE HSFO markets seem to be well supplied. Although the Eastern Arbitrage is considered to be at workable levels, no new VLCC fixutres have been reported yet. The Singaporean markets are seen 60 cents in normal backwardation. The HSFO Med markets are oversupplied and sluggish, with cargoes to NWE starting to become more attractive. For the LSFO there are some cargoes seen moved from NWE to the Med, although the arbitrage is not considered to be open yet. The NWE LSFO markets are well supplied, with stored product entering the market in December.

380cst: $456
(1.0%): $467
180cst: $469
(1.0%): $482
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $711