---

The Port Authority of Rotterdam estimates that goods throughput could rise by 155-320 million tonnes, or 37-76 percent, from 420 million tonnes to 575-740 million tonnes by 2030.

Rotterdam Port Authority says the estimates form the basis of 'Port Vision 2030', a vision of the future which is meant to serve as a pointer for the further development of the port.

The port authority says it has made the estimates based on three different economic scenarios. Throughput volumes differ in each scenario, but there are also some general trends for each of the three scenarios.

In all of the scenarios, containers are the largest growth sector. Raw materials show limited growth or even a decline, while semi-manufactured products, like mineral oil products and steel, are set to increase.

In addition, developments in the energy sector look set to have a large influence on throughput volumes. In the most sustainable scenario, for example, the transshipment of biomass and LNG increases sharply, while crude oil throughput declines.

Commenting on the estimates, Hans Smits, Port Authority CEO said: “Port Vision 2030 is meant to serve as a pointer for the further development of the port. Rotterdam’s port and industrial complex is one of the strongest clusters in our national economy. Port Vision 2030 is therefore of national importance. In the next half year, we will be looking to talk with stakeholders, clients and authorities and expect to complete the vision by the summer of 2011."

The port authority used economic scenarios from the CPB (Central Planning Office) and EU to get a picture of the opportunities and threats for the development of the port. The scenarios are based on:

- existing policy and moderate economic growth (European Trend scenario)

- further globalisation combined with a low oil price, leading to high economic growth (Global Economy scenario), and

- a high oil price, a strict environmental policy, moderate economic growth and a relatively rapid shift to sustainability by industry and logistics (High Oil Price scenario).

In each scenario, throughput increases, but not to the same degree for every type of goods. Container traffic, for example, rises at a faster rate as globalisation increases and transport is cheap as a result of low oil prices.

If environmental regulations become more stringent and oil more expensive, then steel production in Europe will fall (ie less CO2 emissions in Europe, less imported iron ore and more imported steel), and a number of refineries in Europe would close down.

At the same time, more oil products are then imported and a larger percentage of the region's energy needs are met by renewable sources.

Over the past few months, the results of the estimates have been tested against the knowledge of a group of companies that Rotterdam Port Authority says it has been in consultation with.

This autumn, a number of discussions will be held with interest groups, authorities and the business sector.

"The idea is that the initial contours of the Port Vision will become visible around the turn of the year, after which it can become the subject of a public discussion," Rotterdam Port Authority said.

Bunker Volumes

Current bunker volumes in Rotterdam are approximately 13.5 million tonnes per year for an annual goods throughput of 420 million tonnes.

If we were to extrapolate these figures for port authority throughput estimates of 575-740 million tonnes in 2030, annual bunker volumes would be 18.4 - 23.7 million tonnes based on the bunker volume to goods throughput ratio remaining the same.

However, the above bunker volume calculation does not take into account the wider use of alternative fuels by 2030, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), fuel cells, solar power and biodiesel.